Experts told “RBC-Crypto” About what can happen in the crypto car in July, what factors can affect the price of bitcoin and other digital assets in the next month.
Punching the lower border is not expected
The summer months of 2023 and 2024 cannot be called periods of confident growth, their main characteristic was prolonged consolidation with elements of moderate correction, the leading analyst of the CIFRA Markets cryptro-briefly recalled Alexander Kraiko. The first half of 2025 completed the asset near its historical maximums, and this July there is a high probability of lateral movement, but with the growth potential, the expert believes.
According to his estimates, under the basic script, the BTC will be consolidated in the established corridor $ 98-108 thousand. Piercing the lower boundary of the range in the absence of negative shocks is not expected, Kraiko believes.
He called the accumulation zone: the levels in the region of $ 98–102 thousand are presented to the analytics technically attractive for the gradual set of long positions. This is an area where we can expect increased the purchasing interest of investors who see the long -term potential of the asset, the expert explained and noted the potential of moderate growth.
“Although the main scenario is consolidation, a moderate positive movement cannot be ruled out in July. Historical statistics work in favor of this: over the past ten years, the average yield of bitcoin in June has been close to zero, while July showed an average yield of about 6%, ”says Kraiko.
The expert believes that this seasonal factor can add optimism. In this scenario, in his opinion, you can calculate not a slight excess of the maximum, with an rise of up to $ 115 thousand.
An important external driver of moods on the crypto is a traditional stock market, especially the US indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ), said Kraiko. He suggested that after updating historical maximums, stock indices with a high probability will include in the phase of technical correction or consolidation to check the stability of the trend. Bitcoin will probably “wait” for confirmation of further growth before taking decisive steps up beyond the current range, the expert added. According to him, a strong rollback in the stock market can temporarily exert pressure on BTC.
Long -term growth expectations
According to the TEHNOBIT CEO, Alexander was rebuilt, the basic scenario suggests that in July, Bitcoin will bargain in the range of $ 106–111 thousand with a potential breakdown to $ 118 thousand closer to the end of summer. Especially if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will give clear signals about the upcoming reduction in the rate, the expert says.
He noted that such a scenario is possible against the background of the ongoing sustainable growth of tributaries in spot exchange funds (ETF) on Bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts evaluate that by the end of 2025, spotal ETF can accumulate up to 6.5% of the entire Bitcoin circulation, which will provide sustainable support for quotes, repaid the overlaps.
An additional bull factor remains the ongoing reduction in BTC balance on centralized exchanges, the analyst added. According to him, this is a traditionally bull factor for a crypto.
“More and more investors prefer storage in cold wallets, which indicates long -term growth expectations and liquidity reduction,” the expert explained.
Fundamental imbalance
Speaking about Ethereum, Kraiko noted that altcoin is traded in the region of $ 2450 – in the lower part of its current price range $ 2400–2750. According to the expert, in the context of the general consolidation of the crypto, in July, the continuation of the side movement or the moderate correction of ETH is likely. In this scenario, the zone $ 2200–2250 seems attractive to investors considering building positions or entering the market, the analyst believes.
“The main argument in favor of Ethereum and high -quality altcoins are their historical underestimation regarding bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has been at minimums since 2021. This fundamental imbalance creates the prerequisites for a significant rotation of capital – a renewal of Bitcoin funds to Ethereum and other altcoins in the medium term, ”says Kraiko.
In his opinion, a large -scale rotation is unlikely to become the main driver in July, but the current consolidation period can provide an important window for accumulating positions in Ethereum. The expert called the presence of approved ETH-ETF a powerful factor that enhances the likelihood of such a scenario.
Attention is concentrated at external risks
In addition, at the end of May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave a reason to hope that the income from stakeing can be included in the spot-eth-ETF, recalled overpower. He noted that this is important: if such products appear, it will be easier for institutional investors to go to Ethereum and immediately receive income from stakeing. Another driver – Pectra update, added an analyst.
ETH, like other cryptocurrencies, reacts to general macroeconomic and market factors, says it is reborn. And the price of altcoin, according to him, is still in a limited range, since the attention of investors is concentrated at external risks. He added that additional pressure is exerted by SOLANA, which actively promotes its own Defi and NFT infrastructure.
The expected trading range for ETH in July is $ 2500-3050 with possible short -term emissions beyond its limits in case of market shocks, the analyst believes. According to his forecast, by the end of summer it can be expected that ETH will be able to gain a foothold above $ 3200, and then you can wait for movement to $ 4000 and above by the end of the year.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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