Starting on March 23, Bitcoin prices and most other cryptocurrencies began to grow after the reports of the possible softening of US trade duties, the introduction of which is expected on April 2. According to Bloomberg, which refers to informed officials, the expected duties will be more purposeful, and some countries are completely exempted from additional tariffs. Experts also saw the possibility of bitcoin growth by $ 110 thousand after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve (FRS) on the softening of monetary policy, writes RBC Crypto.
On February 2, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of trade duties for Canada, China and Mexico. And also he promised to introduce additional duties on goods from the EU. This coincided with a decrease in bitcoin price. By March 11, bitcoin quotes lost more than 24%, in the moment dropped below $ 77 thousand. Since then, the quotes recovered, and over the past day the BTC price has increased by about 4%, overcoming $ 88.4 thousand. Subsequently, Trump has shifted the introduction of duties for April.
The total capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased comparable to BTC quotes by about 3%, to $ 2.84 trillion, according to CoinmarketCap. More than 95% of the list of 100 largest cryptocurrencies increased in price over the past day.
Despite the optimism of quotes on the morning of March 24, experts do not expect significant positive changes this week.
“Next week, serious changes in the course are not expected. The market remains under the rule of the “bears”. Investors prefer to transfer capital to the most stable protective assets. The price of gold updates maximums over the past weeks. Risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, on the contrary, observe the outflow of capital, ”wrote the head of Tehnobit Alexander Substsyan.
Others see the problem in Trump’s constantly changing position in tariffs. “The problem for investors was the constantly changing rhetoric of President Trump. Trump’s position was already tired of the market participants, since constant fluctuations between the escalation and de -escalation of trade wars create uncertainty, ”wrote Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov.
The decision of the Fed
Traiders and investors are also engaged in evaluating further steps from the point of view of the monetary policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, March 19, representatives of the Fed, at their first meeting, from the moment President Trump, decided to maintain a credit rate in the range from 4.25 to 4.50%.
As a decision on the rate of the Fed will affect the cryptocurrency market. What you need to know when fulfilling your tasks, the Fed adjusts the monetary policy by reducing or increasing the basic credit rate, which can influence all financial and trade markets. When the economy is stable, the Fed can soften monetary policy, that is, reduce the credit rate, thereby creating a more attractive climate for investors. Conversely, in conditions when crises arise in the economy, the Fed may tighten monetary policy, which, in fact, worsens the investment climate. Thus, assumptions about the future reduction in the rate are perceived by investors as a positive signal to improve the economic situation.
The American Central Bank indicates that the uncertainty regarding economic prospects has now increased. Also, following the results of the meeting, Fedorrev decided to slow down the rate of sale of bonds and mortgage securities on the balance sheet (Qt, QE – reverse QT situation). The Fed has also worsened its forecast for inflation and economic growth in the coming years: it is expected that by the end of 2025 inflation will be 2.7 versus 2.5% in the December forecast. In 2026, the Fed is expecting inflation at 2.2 versus 2.1% earlier. In 2027, the forecast is the same – 2%.
The founder of the Bitmex crypto -tank and the Maelstrom cryptocurrency director, Arthur Hayes, called the Fed’s actions much more important than trading tariffs and estimated the likelihood of reaching the BTC level of $ 110 thousand above the fall to $ 76.5 thousand.
“I put that BTC will reach $ 110 thousand, before he tests $ 76.5 thousand again. FRS goes from QT to QE in the treasury bond market. And the tariffs do not matter, ”Hais wrote in X.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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