Analysts warn: Putin’s next target may be Moldova

Three weeks after the start of the war in Ukraine, analysts warn that President Vladimir Putin may be thinking about his next goal: Moldova.

Moldova, an Eastern European country located on the western border of Ukraine, is in a situation that has several parallels with Ukraine and is in danger of becoming a stronghold for the ongoing attack or being itself vulnerable to attack.

“If the conflict escalates beyond Ukraine, Moldova is one of the top places on the list,” Adriano Bosoni, director of analysis at risk management company Rane, told CNBC.

Moldova, like Ukraine, is neither a member of the European Union nor a member of NATO – although it aspires to do both. But, like Ukraine, the former Soviet republic is home to a significant pro-Russian population based mainly in the breakaway state of Transnistria on the Ukrainian border.

Led by its own Kremlin-backed leader, Transnistria could be a strategic opportunity for Russia, which already has about 1,500 troops in the region.

Putin could recognize it as an independent state – as he did with Donetsk and Luhansk before launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – or he could become the focus of a false flag operation set up by Russia to justify an intervention. .

“It’s extremely interesting to me that Russia has not yet recognized Transnistria as an independent democracy in the same way that it did in Luhansk and Donetsk,” Bosoni said.

“If we saw Russia doing this, it would be a serious indication that it is considering transferring the conflict to Moldova.” The Russian embassies in London and New York, as well as the Russian Foreign Ministry, did not respond to CNBC requests for comment.

There is currently no definite indication that Putin is planning such a strategy in Moldova, according to Bosoni, who described it as a “low-probability, high-risk situation”. Early evidence could include Russia’s denunciation of the country’s pro-European government, as well as wider destabilization efforts and campaigns to undermine the authorities.

However, if Russia follows this path, it will mean further difficulties for the 2.6 million Moldovans and the 350,000 migrants from Ukraine who have taken refuge there.

“They would be very weak. There would be little to no resistance,” said Clinton Watts, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute on the Moldovan Resistance. The country – one of the poorest in Europe in terms of GDP per capita – has far fewer military capabilities than Ukraine.

An invasion of Moldova could therefore open a backdoor for southwestern Ukraine, Watts said, noting that Putin may be looking for an alternative plan, given Russia’s failed attempts to encircle the capital, Kyiv.

“They can wait for Kyiv and try to bypass Odessa first,” he said, referring to the port city in southern Ukraine. Russia may then try to occupy the southern part of the country, having already closed Nikolaev, 130 km east of Odessa.

“I think he is more likely to want to occupy southern Ukraine and reunite Transnistria with it, using it as a springboard to occupy Moldova,” Watts added.

If that happens, Moldova could face a fate similar to that of Ukraine, trapped in a conflict with a global superpower while Western allies watch from the sidelines.

“There is no way we can feel safe in this area right now,” said President Maya Sandu earlier this month during a meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

At the time, Blinken promised American support for the small democracy, which a few days earlier had applied for rapid EU membership. But without being a member of the EU or NATO, neither side is likely to help.

“Blinken says the United States supports Moldova. That does not mean they would support it,” Bosoni said.

This is what distinguishes Moldova from other former Soviet nations, such as the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which have expressed national security concerns amid growing threats from their Russian neighbor. All three are members of the EU and NATO, suggesting that the Allies would intervene in the event of a Russian invasion.

And that leaves Moldova in a precarious position if Russia makes it its next target. “It may not be within 48 hours. It may be 48 months from now,” Watts said.