Analysts warned of the upcoming bubble in crypto

The current bitcoin cycle (BTC) demonstrates behavior that is different from previous bull cycles, is noted in Cryptoquant. Analysts compared the last three cryptocurrency cycles and came to the conclusion that the current one is characterized by repeating strong jerks of prices, followed by movements similar to the artificial suppression of the market. He writes about this RBC Crypto.

Experts accompanied the report with three schedules with Bitcoin: Realized Cap-Utxo Age Bands (%). It reflects the share of bitcoins, moving in different periods of time – from “fresh” (movement over the past 24 hours) to “old” (not touched by years).

At the final stages of previous bull cycles (2017 and 2021), the share of recently displaced coins increased noticeably, which coincided with mass sale and fixation of profit. In the current cycle, such a surge has not yet been observed: “sleeping” coins prevail, which may indicate the continued accumulation and ambiguity of the market phase.

Bull cycle of 2017

The bull cycle of 2017 was characterized by a general ascending trend with short correction periods, experts explain. After the peak of Bitcoin reaches about $ 20 thousand, a correction occurred, which lasted about 7-8 months.

Bull cycle of 2021

At the beginning of the bull cycle of 2021, a prolonged correction was observed, which, due to the pandemia of the Covid-19, stretched for about a year. After that, a significant growth with minimal kickbacks was observed on the market until the cycle is completed. This demonstrates a typical pattern in which stronger ascending movements often follow longer and large -scale corrections, analysts note.

Current cycle of 2024–2025

At the early stage of the current bull cycle, short corrections and climbs similar to past cycles were observed. However, at the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin demonstrated strong rise, followed by sharp kickbacks that occurred twice.

At the same time, experts drew attention to the fact that during the correction from March to November 2024 and from January to April 2025, altcoins showed low results, which significantly worsened the mood on the market. Then, short -term strong climbs followed, but the market continues to face resistance.

Cryptoquant concluded that bitcoin behavior in the current cycle requires interpretation that is different from the description of previous cycles. This situation is characterized by repeating strong jerks of prices, which “follows what seems to be artificial suppression of the market,” the report said.

“Such movements are usually interpreted as attempts by influential players to cool overheated markets, which indicates the intention to extend the bull cycle. Ultimately, it is expected that the cycle will end with an euphoric phase marked with a significant bubble, ”analysts write.

In early May, the head of Cryptoquant Ki Yu Ju said that his recent forecast for the completion of the bull cycle was erroneous. According to him, the pressure on the part of the sellers weakens, and the influx of capital continues through the spot exchange funds for Bitcoin (ETF).

“It’s time to abandon the old theory of cycles. It is much more important now – to track the volume of new liquidity by funds and institutions, ”he said.

He explained that earlier the cryptorright was easier and consisted mainly of large holders, miners and retail investors. The market cycles were distinct and ended with mass sales when large players went out of position. Now, Ki believes, the market has changed: ETF, institutional investors and even government agencies have appeared, and capital scenarios have become less predictable.

This opinion coincides with the statements of the founder of Binance Chanpen Zhao that now it is difficult to say how long the current cycle will be. However, according to the forecast of Zhao, by the end of the cycle, the bitcoin exchange rate can reach $ 1 million.

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