Andelsblatt: Is Bosnia-Herzegovina Putin’s next ‘gate’?

Dodik is the leader of Bosnia’s largest Bosnian Serb party, the SNSD, and a member of the three-member state presidency, which consists of one Bosniak, one Croat and one Bosnian Serb. And he is a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who supports him in making Bosnia-Herzegovina history in its current form, according to Handelsblatt.

In return, Dodik considers the Russian offensive against Ukraine to be justified and demands that the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina take a “neutral” stance on the Ukrainian war. In fact, Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the few European countries that has not acceded to EU sanctions against Russia. Ministers with a Bosnian Serb background in Sarajevo had blocked the decision.

At present, the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of two so-called entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which represent about 49% of the state territory. In addition, there is the Brcko Special Administrative Zone, which makes up about 2% of the country and crosses the territory of the Republika Srpska.

The Republic of Serbia, which literally means the Republic of Serbia and of which Dodik was president for a long time, is inhabited mainly by Serbs (81.5%). According to the latest census conducted in 2013, the population of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is 70.4% Bosniaks – Bosnian Muslims – and 22.4% Catholic Croats. Orthodox Serbs make up only 2.5% of the population there.

The Brcko Special Administrative Region, on the other hand, has a mixed population, which is why it was not annexed to the Republika Srpska after the Bosnian war: in 2013, 42% of Bosniaks, 35% of Serbs and 21% of Croats lived there.

The goal of a separate army

Separation efforts have long been under way in the Republika Srpska and have become more concrete in recent months. In October 2021, the country’s parliament decided to set up its own drug service, although there is already one at the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Observers have estimated that the entity government in Banja Luka is testing how far one can go to build structures for a separate state.

The big blow came a little later: in December, laws were passed in Banja Luka that would lead to the withdrawal of the Republika Srpska from the state structures of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In particular, the parliament decided to remove the responsibilities of the central state in the areas of taxation, justice, security and defense.

The main inspirer behind this was Dodik. It also aims to dismantle the country’s armed forces and create a separate Republika Srpska army. A traumatic task for the country’s Bosniaks: The genocide of 8,000 Bosniaks in Srebrenica – which Dodik denies – was committed by the army of the Republika Srpska at the time.

So far, Western diplomacy is still trying to persuade the Banja Luka government to repeal the laws. EU Neighborhood Policy Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi has offered Dodik a € 600 million reward, which he has not yet convinced.

There is not much time left: the laws are supposed to come into force in May. There are fears in diplomatic circles that Dodik will then declare the independence of the Republika Srpska. Russia and Serbia would probably recognize it.

He may then want to join the Serbian entity – something that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, also a friend of Putin, of course approves of. The attempt to unite this part of the country with Serbia to form a Greater Serbia was one of the reasons for the Bosnian war and the Bosnian genocide. This scenario would again worsen the security situation in Kosovo, which Serbia considers its own.

Thus, history threatens to repeat itself in the Balkans, led by the politicians in power in the leaderships of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. And their powerful friend Putin, who can easily exploit such fragile states for his geostrategic interests.

Bosnia and Herzegovina hopes to join NATO

If fears of secession from Bosnian Serb territory are not met, the possibility of a conflict over the role of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s army remains. Bosnia and Herzegovina aspires to become a long-term member of NATO and is currently a partner country. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the defense alliance assured Sarajevo of even stronger support. On the other hand, the Republika Srpska rejects NATO membership – as does Serbia, which prefers to cooperate militarily with Russia.

The Bosnian Serb region is also based on co-operation with Russia. As early as 2017, the Russians sent military units and intelligence officers there and trained Bosnian Serbs as “special police officers”. Moscow wants to prevent Bosnia and Herzegovina from joining NATO with all its might.

This was also evident from a statement by the Russian diplomat in Sarajevo, Igor Kalabukhov. Kalabukhov threatened on Bosnian state television that if Bosnia and Herzegovina decided to join NATO, the country could face a similar fate to Ukraine.

For SPD MP Andis Ahmetovic, this is a clear signal of danger. “After all, we have learned that the Putin regime’s statements should be taken seriously,” the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s foreign policy chief said recently. He told Handelsblatt: “This is a threat against international law, as well as another attempt to destabilize the Western Balkans, the Mediterranean and, consequently, Europe.”

Green MEP Romeo Franz also warned: “We must take Putin’s threats seriously. After the aggressive war in Ukraine, it has become clear that the Russian dictator is seeking a new world order and wants to impose it by force of arms. “Putin has been targeting the Western Balkans as a whole for a long time.”

In Britain, the imminent danger has been recognized: London has already imposed sanctions on Dodik and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the president of the Republika Srpska. Both have been barred from entering the UK and their assets may be frozen. However, the two politicians are probably not particularly worried. Dodik said he was “indifferent” to the UK sanctions against him. The British were never in favor of the Serbs anyway.

US sanctions against Dodik, meanwhile, have been in place for many years and were tightened again in January over the military proposal. U.S. citizens are now barred from doing business with Dodik.

The EU, on the other hand, has not yet succeeded in imposing sanctions on Dodik, although a legal framework has already been established. According to him, those trying to undermine the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina could, for example, face an entry ban and a financial freeze. However, individual countries have so far vetoed its implementation in Dodik.

One of them is Hungary, which is happy to work with Russia and Serbia. Prime Minister Viktor Orban also recently pledged $ 100m in financial assistance to Serbian leader Dodik. A clear support, because the Republic of Serbia is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Another country is Croatia. And this creates an even bigger problem, because Zagreb supports not only Dodik, but also the other devil in Bosnia and Herzegovina. His figure this time: also like Dodik over 1.90 m tall, but with gray hair. His name is Dragan Covic, he is the leader of the largest Bosnian Croat party. Covic is fighting for an official Croatian division in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This puts the EU in a precarious position: Even within its ranks, they are helping to dismember Bosnia and Herzegovina in its current form.