Almost 3,500 demonstrators were arrested on Saturday January 23 in Russia, during rallies in support of the opponent Alexei Navalny that took place in dozens of cities, from Moscow to Vladivostok, on a scale unprecedented in recent years. Anti-corruption activist, Navalny, 44, was arrested on January 17 on his return from Germany, where he was hospitalized following an attempted poisoning with chemical weapons attributed to the Russian services. Upon his return, he published a video accusing Vladimir Putin of having had a palace of disproportionate splendor built for himself for a billion euros, on the Black Sea. The Kremlin has dismissed the accusations outright. Andrei Kolesnikov, head of domestic policy studies at the Carnegie think tank in Moscow, analyzes the prospects for the pro-Navalny movement.
How are the pro-Navalny protests of January 23 exceptional?
The main change is that 40% of demonstrators have, for the first time in their lives, taken to the streets to protest. This is undoubtedly due to the emotion provoked by the return of Navalny and his immediate arrest, as well as to the impact of the broadcast on social networks of the video on the “Putin Palace”, symbol of wealth. elites.
How is Navalny’s image changing?
Last December, the Levada opinion research institute estimated the number of people polled against Navalny at 50%, compared to only 20% who supported him. Since then, there has surely been a change in his favor. The townspeople are ready to demonstrate against his illegal arrest and, more broadly, against the stagnation of Russian politics. We counted 11 million people who followed the broadcast of the demonstrations on the Dojd web TV and 1 billion videos of Navalny viewed in the TikTok app – the Kremlin is facing an unprecedented media situation!
Can Navalny claim a role of national opposition leader?
The Kremlin itself turned Navalny into a moral leader by letting the security services, the siloviki, who arrested him when he got off the plane before arresting more than 3,000 demonstrators across the country. However, for the moment, he cannot claim the role of national leader – Navalny is not Yeltsin (Russian statesman who played a key role in the failure of a military putsch in 1991 and then became president of the Russian Federation, Editor’s note). Its level of unpopularity remains high.
The inertia of the masses in Russia is very strong.
The discontent of the regions ceases to be a marginal phenomenon, the protests having affected 111 cities this time around. What does it take for it to lead to a bigger movement?
This situation will not lead to a revolution. The inertia of the masses in Russia is very strong. The maximum that we will be able to see are regular protests, as in Khabarovsk, in the Russian Far East, since last summer. It would be illusory to believe that in Russia the street could seize power.
Under these conditions, what future do you see for the Navalny movement?
Mass protests against his arrest are one thing and political influence is another. If Navalny does not find a way to strengthen its cooperation with civil society, the work of its anti-corruption foundation (FBK) will be summed up as before in the so-called smart voting strategy and anti-corruption investigations.
Pro-Navalny activists announced a new protest on January 31. Navalny’s right-hand man, Leonid Volkov, aims to build a political majority. Will there be people?
The second action can bring together even more participants, as we saw in Moscow in 2019, when the repression of protests in July caused an increase in mobilization in August. But sooner or later there will be a pause.
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