Another fall to the lows of the year is not ruled out

  • EUR / USD corrects lower after advancing past 1.1300 on Friday.
  • If the selling momentum picks up, then the pair could retest 1.1186.

EUR / USD gives part of the gains recorded in Friday’s strong rally to the zone beyond 1.1300.

If Friday’s peak is not far behind in the very short term, then sellers could return to the market and force the pair to resume declines. Faced with this, another visit to the 2021 minimum at 1.1186 (November 23 minimum) has not yet been ruled out.

The probability of further losses remains unchanged as long as EUR / USD trades below the two-month resistance line (from the September peak) near 1.1570. Long-term, the negative stance is expected to persist as long as it remains below the 200-day SMA at 1.1831.

EUR / USD day chart

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