Another opportunity for diplomacy

By Costas Raptis

“Condemned” to return to the “crime scene”. Despite the failure of his five-hour live meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 7, French President Emanuel Macron resumed telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart on Sunday, this time mobilizing an interesting diplomatic message. Or rather, a round of “armed diplomacy”, since the background of any talks are the at least 2,000 violations of the ceasefire recorded by the OSCE mission on the front line of eastern Ukraine.

Macron’s motives are not difficult to decipher. As EU presidency In the current six months and mainly as a leader who is fighting for his re-election in two months, the French president is in a hurry to show success on the international stage, bearing in mind the predecessor of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, who in 2008 mediated for end of the war in South Ossetia (but at a stage where Russian aspirations had already been fulfilled).

But low-cost hits are not offered nowadays. Hence, at the February 7 meeting, the reception Macron received was almost humiliating, and the main conclusion from the joint statements of the two leaders was Putin’s threatening reminder that his country is a nuclear power and that from a Russia-NATO conflict no one will not be left untouched.

The real dialogue (more precisely: the bra de fer) that Russia is conducting is with the United States as the leader of NATO and not with countries that do not have strategic autonomy and can not offer anything tangible at the negotiating table.

But after two weeks of marginalization, Macron took the initiative again, as he had to. And so far he has boasted that he has yielded results: his conversation with Putin resulted in an agreement to repeat the talks in a “Normandy composition” (Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany) on the basis of proposals recently submitted by Ukraine, the convening of a tripartite (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE) within 24 hours to secure a ceasefire on the front line, to schedule a meeting of Foreign Ministers Jean-Yves Le Drian and Sergei Lavrov in Paris with the aim of launching a diplomatic process involving Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians “, ending, if conditions allow, a meeting at the highest possible level to define” a new order of security and peace in Europe “.

It is interesting how the French communiqué overcomes the Anglo-Saxon factor with a general reference to “allies.” (and not only).

This is obviously a self-defense move by (mainland) Europe in the face of the prospect of a major war in the east, which, in addition to the destabilizing economic climate and refugee waves it threatens to provoke, will mean, from the outset, an Anglo-Saxon a new “Wall” of sanctions, which will turn the “27” into a “captive market” with a competitive disadvantage against its allies.

The “strategic autonomy of Europe” that Macron claims he sees as impossible is impossible in isolation from Russia, but American hegemony is inconceivable without a transatlantic relationship shielded against the “sirens” of emerging Eurasian integration.

For now, however, the US side seems to be coordinating with France’s diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis, as Anthony Blinken is scheduled to meet with Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, and Joe Biden says he is available for a meeting with Putin. But the American establishment is not monolithic, its movements are never unambiguous, and the “deep state” has the ability to take initiatives that the political leadership does not need to openly embrace.

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Source: Capital

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