- Apple shares fall as iPhone 16 pre-orders decline
- First-weekend preorders for iPhone 16 are estimated to be 13% lower than for iPhone 15.
- Prominent analyst Kuo Ming-Chi suggests that Apple may need to cut prices in 2025.
- Kuo blames Chinese competition and the late launch of Apple Intelligence for the decline in demand.
Apple (AAPL) shares are down on Monday after a Hong Kong-based analyst offered his outlook on early iPhone 16 orders. AAPL shares are down about 3% at the time of writing.
Much of the market is preparing for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty over whether a 25 or 50 basis point cut is expected. Before that, US retail sales will be released on Tuesday. The market is expecting a 0.2% monthly increase for August, but FXStreet senior analyst Yohay Elam thinks, “A second surprising jump would be good for the economy but bad for stocks.”
The wider universe of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)however, is doing quite well. The 30-stock index is up 0.3% at lunchtime in New York, while the NASDAQ is down 1% and the S&P 500 is down 0.2%. This comes after the Dow improved late last week as well.
News about Apple stocks
TF International Securities analyst Kuo Ming-Chi, a previously unknown analyst at a little-known investment bank in Hong Kong, produced incisive insights in a new Medium post over the weekend.
According to analyst estimates, Apple’s new iPhone appears to be less attractive than initially expected.
“First-weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 series are estimated at around 37 million units, down 12.7% year-on-year compared with the first-weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year,” Kuo wrote. “The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.”
Kuo Ming-Chi’s iPhone 15 model estimates (Source: TF International Securities)
The analyst, who is considered arguably the best Apple analyst in the business globally, said intense competition in China has dampened demand, as has the fact that Apple’s AI platform Apple Intelligence has not launched alongside the iPhone 16.
If Apple Intelligence launches in the fourth quarter but holiday promotions fail to boost iPhone 16 shipments, then Kuo believes Apple will resort to “aggressive” strategies. Without saying so explicitly, this means reduced prices that would hurt margins.
The iPhone 16 began pre-orders on September 13, while the full lineup will launch on September 20.
Apple Stock Forecast
Apple stock is on a pullback after its range high on August 29, which turned out to be a lower high. Therefore, it is natural for the market to look for notable support levels. The next one comes at $210 near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). After that, the 200-day SMA comes near the previous resistance-turned-support at $196.
AAPL stock daily chart
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
