Are North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine? Understand

There is growing intelligence that North Korea is preparing for a more direct role in Russia’s war in Ukraine, a move that could have an impact beyond the front lines of the war raging in Europe.

The United States, Ukraine and South Korea say North Korean troops have been sent to Russia for training with the aim of being transported to Ukraine.

Russia and North Korea have denied the reports, while South Korea has hinted that any deployment could make it reassess the level of military support it gives Ukraine.

In recent months, Moscow and Pyongyang have deepened their military partnership and the growing alliance has worried officials in Kiev and Washington.

Are North Koreans in Ukraine?

On Wednesday, the White House said that at least 3,000 North Korean troops have arrived in eastern Russia this month, and while it is not yet clear what they will do, it is a “highly concerning likelihood” that they will join the fight against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly warned that North Korean troops are joining Russia’s war, telling a NATO summit last week that “10,000” troops and technical personnel were being prepared.

The president said in his evening speech on Tuesday that Ukraine had information about Russia “training two North Korean military units” involving perhaps “two brigades of 6,000 people each.”

Zelensky also told reporters that Ukraine has seen “North Korean officers and technical staff in the temporarily occupied territories” and believes Russia is “preparing a grouping” to enter Ukraine.

A Ukrainian intelligence source previously told CNN that a small number of North Koreans have worked with the Russian military, mainly to help with engineering and exchange information on the use of North Korean ammunition.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), said on Friday that North Korea has sent 1,500 soldiers, including special forces fighters, to Russia for training.

These reports appeared to be reinforced when North Korean soldiers were filmed receiving uniforms and equipment at a training camp in Russia’s Far East.

Another video circulating on social media and geolocated by CNN showed troops arriving at the Sergeevka Training Camp near Russia’s border with China.

Maxar Technologies satellite images of the Sergeevka military base show freshly dug trenches and newly constructed obstacles between September and October.

Other satellite images obtained by CNN show dozens of soldiers training with newly built obstacles and armored vehicles at the same Russian military base. The images were taken over several days over the past two weeks.

What is North Korea’s relationship with Russia?

Russia and North Korea, both pariahs in the West, have forged increasingly friendly ties since Moscow’s invasion.

In June, the two nations signed a historic defense pact and pledged to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance should the other be attacked.

Several governments have accused Pyongyang of supplying arms to Moscow for its war in Ukraine, which both countries have denied despite significant evidence of such transfers.

The arms shipments, which include thousands of metric tons of ammunition, have helped Russia replenish its dwindling stockpiles in a war in which Ukraine’s forces are outnumbered and outgunned.

Meanwhile, North Korea is believed to have received food and other necessities in return.

The nation also seeks to advance its illegal space, missile and nuclear programs.

What was the reaction?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims that North Korean military personnel had been sent to help Russia as “another hoax.”

When asked directly by reporters on Monday whether Moscow was sending North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine, Peskov said North Korea is a “close neighbor” and the two states were “developing relations in all areas ”.

“This cooperation is not directed at third countries,” he said.

North Korea called the allegations “baseless and stereotypical rumors” during a UN General Assembly meeting on Monday.

But Seoul is not taking this lightly.

On Monday, its Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and called for an “immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops.”

South Korea’s first vice foreign minister, Kim Hong-kyun, warned that the alleged shipment violates UN Security Council resolutions. The Office of National Security held an emergency meeting to discuss a possible South Korean response.

After the meeting, Kim Tae-hyo, the first deputy director of national security, said the government would implement “phased countermeasures” in accordance with the “progress of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.”

It is unclear what the measures would be, but a South Korean government official said they are preparing “diplomatic, economic and military measures.”

As North Korea is in the “preliminary stage of sending troops to Russia,” South Korea is evaluating whether to proceed to “actual combat participation,” the administration official added.

“We are developing scenarios to understand the potential impacts that North Korea and Russia’s actions could have on us,” he said.

Seoul, one of the world’s largest arms suppliers, has provided humanitarian aid and financial support to Ukraine while adhering to Western sanctions against Moscow. But it did not supply lethal weapons directly to Kiev due to controls on arms exports to countries at war.

The stakes are high.

North and South Korea are separated by one of the most militarized borders in the world and technically remain in a state of war. Relations between the two have deteriorated in recent years with an increase in inflammatory rhetoric on both sides of the demilitarized zone.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday that the U.S. does not believe North Korean troops have reached Ukraine, but the moves have raised deep concerns as a potentially serious escalation.

“This will have impacts not just in Europe. It will also affect things in the Indo-Pacific,” Austin said.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that if troops are sent to Ukraine, “they are fair game. They are fair targets.”

What it means?

Any intervention by North Korea could be a decisive moment. The isolated and heavily sanctioned regime taking a role in a major international conflict on the other side of the world is something it hasn’t done in decades.

The state has one of the largest armies in the world, with 1.2 million soldiers, but many of its troops have no combat experience.

Analysts say the North Korean regime would have much to gain from sending troops, including giving its forces battlefield experience and technical training. The deal could also help North Korea gain real-world intelligence about how its weaponry works.

“Special forces troops will return with real battlefield experience, real infiltration experience against an alerted combat opponent. That makes them more dangerous,” said Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the Joint Intelligence Center at U.S. Pacific Command.

“I think Kim is providing the troops to get the resources he needs to prop up the regime, and lessons learned that he can apply if he thinks conflict is coming to the peninsula,” he added.

Chun In-bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean army, told CNN that the Russians would “receive an increase in workforce, which they lack now” and the North Koreans would get “money, technology” and experience.

Those mobilized would be “elite” special forces rather than conventional troops, analysts say.

“If they succeed there, they will gain not only first-hand battle experience, but international recognition. So this could be a really serious problem for the entire world,” Chun said.

“What if the North Koreans make a habit of this? What if they become a base to supply well-trained soldiers? The potential of this mobilization must be very worrying”, he added.

This content originally appeared on Are North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine? Understand on the CNN Brasil website.

Source: CNN Brasil