Asia: The big neutral in Russian-Ukrainian

By Costas Raptis

The former single “world village” is fragmented. EU-led Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, and the ensuing sanctions, herald the creation of two distinct worlds with minimal interaction, not just political and non-political. economic, but also in the cultural and social fields.

But there are others who are watching the conflict without being willing to sever ties with either side. In this case, too, without resorting to sanctions against Russia, regardless of their views on the Russian invasion.

Such is the case in Asia – not only in the east but also in the west. Of the continent, that is, with the largest demographic and increasing weight on the planet.

The list of countries that signed the letter of complaint from Russia to the UN together with the Western countries is typical. The only Asian countries included are Japan, South Korea and Singapore, ie countries that despite their geographical location and cultural specificity can be considered politically and economically an organic part of the West and host, in the case of the first two American troops.

Japan, in particular, has many reasons to be concerned about the Sino-Russian alliance, while maintaining an open territorial dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands.

The list is completed by Kuwait, as an invaded country (in 1990 by Iraq). However, it is the only Arab country on the list and also the only Muslim majority, along with NATO-affiliated Turkey and Albania.

Absences are more resonant. Neither China nor Iran, as expected, nor India or the countries of Southeast Asia participate in the symbolic front against Russia, while Pakistan has just signed a grain and oil agreement with Russia. The fact that Pakistan, once a credible ally of the West, coincides in its stance with its traditional rival (and traditional friend of Russia, out of fear of China) India says a lot about the changes of the times.

Surprising is the absence of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the West’s closest allies in the Middle East.

Interpretations are not difficult to find. For these countries, Russia’s role as a Middle East player, after its involvement in Syria, and as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, at a stage where the talks in Vienna for the revival of the international agreement with the Iran over its nuclear program.

For Riyadh, the joint leadership of Russia and Saudi Arabia within the OPEC + cartel also weighs on the calculations.

Israel, on the other hand, includes one million citizens of former Soviet Union descent. And very characteristically, he rejected the American request for the transfer to Ukraine of elements of the Iron Dome missile shield.

The UAE had finally made its position clear after, as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, it abstained (as did China and India) from voting to condemn the Russian invasion. Recent, after all, was the decision of the UAE in the face of the relevant dilemma posed by the US, to insist on cooperation with the Chinese Huawei, thus sacrificing the order of F-35 fighters that will soon be replaced by Russian Su-35.

In other words, Asia does not “fit” into military confrontations and will diversify its military, political, trade and investment relations a la carte – at least as long as fears of US secondary sanctions allow.