Assassination of Hamas leader raises risk of regional war, analyst says

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has significantly raised tensions in the Middle East, increasing the risk of a regional war. This is the analysis by Silvio Cascione, director of Eurasia Group in Brazil, in an interview with CNN 360° .

According to Cascione, the “highly provocative” act increased the possibility of an open conflict between Iran and Israel, potentially involving other countries in the region. “We are increasingly concerned about the escalation of this conflict in the Middle East,” said the expert.

Despite the escalation of tensions, Cascione stresses that an all-out war is not yet the most likely scenario. “It is not in the interest of Iran, of Israel, to have an all-out war that could have existential risks for Iran,” he explained. The analyst stresses that an open war with Israel could be very dangerous for the Iranian regime.

However, the recent exchange of fire between the two countries has raised the likelihood of a conflict that could spiral out of control. Cascione noted that Iran fired hundreds of missiles at Israel in April and is now threatening an aggressive response that could hit Israeli civilian targets.

Global impacts of a possible conflict

The director of Eurasia Group warns of the potential impacts of a regional war on the global stage, including economic consequences. Although the countries involved still show a preference for keeping the conflict within certain limits, Cascione warns that “they are getting closer and closer to an open conflict”.

The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with the international community closely monitoring developments following the assassination of the Hamas leader. The possibility of military escalation remains a central concern for analysts and world leaders.