THE Asteroid 2024 YR4 considered the riskiest ever recorded last week, now has almost zero percent chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European space agency.
NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of reaching Earth in December 2032, while ESA has a similar risk assessment of 0.002%.
This is an impact possibility of 1 in 59,000, which means that there is a chance of 99.9983% that the asteroid is safely through the land in seven years, according to NASA. The agency also shared that the new data suggested that the asteroid had a 1.7% chance of reaching the moon, but these small chances of impact do not pose a risk to the earth.
“When it was first discovered, the Asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small but remarkable chance of impacting our planet in 2032,” the agency shared on Monday (24).
“As the asteroid observations continued to be sent to the Minor Planet Center, experts at the Center for Object Study near the NASA jet propulsion laboratory land, they were able to calculate more accurate models on the asteroid trajectory and now found that there is no Significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet in the next century. The latest observations further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations in which the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032 moved away from Earth, ”he added.
Over the weekend, the asteroid also fell to a classification of 10 at Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of spatial objects with Earth. The classification indicates that “the probability of a collision is zero, or is so low that it is effectively zero. It also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn in the atmosphere, as well as falling meteorites that rarely cause damage. ”
It is estimated that the asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by telescopes on December 27, 2024, has 40 to 90 meters wide, comparable to a large building, and could cause local devastation to collides with our planet.
The rapid reduction in asteroid risk assessment is due to “unqualified and meticulous work of astronomers” that led a constant flow of space rock tracking observations using telescopes worldwide, Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino scale, said. Binzel is a professor of planetary sciences, deputy professor of Aerospace Engineering and Macvicar College Fellow at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“I am pleasantly surprised that we have been able to reduce probability numbers so quickly,” said Binzel. “I wouldn’t have done no one to have this likelihood for a long time because it would go to zero. The reason I say that she would go to zero is that at the end of the day, the probability is zero and does not hit you, or is one and gets you right. Any number between them is just the space of their uncertainty. We didn’t want to have to sit at that time and uncertainty space for months and months. ”
Record and not threatening
Earlier last week, 2024 YR4 briefly broke a record reached by the asteroid Apophis after being first detected in 2004.
At his peak threat level, 2024 YR4 reached 3 on the Torino scale and had an estimated 3.1% chance of reaching Earth by 2032, according to NASA. ESA’s observations reached a 2.8%peak at risk.
The slight difference was due to the use of different tools by both agencies to determine asteroid orbit and model its potential impact. But both percentages rose above the 2.7% collision chance once associated with Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be signed in the last two decades.
However, as with Apophis, astronomers expected the risk for 2024 YR4 to increase and then fell to zero as they obtained more observational data to reduce uncertainties on the asteroid trajectory.
Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most dangerous asteroids, with a chance to reach our planet and reach 4 in 10 on the Torino scale. The classification meant that the asteroid deserved the attention and tracking of astronomers. Apophis reached 4 because it was a larger object, capable of causing regional damage, while the 2024 YR4 received 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said.
But, like 2024 YR4, Apophis also fell quickly from 4 to 0 on the Torino scale after astronomers spotted asteroid file observations that clarified their orbit more accurately. Although Apophis is still programmed to make a flyer near the earth in 2029, which will be studied by various spaces, it pays no risk to Earth in this century.
The biggest obstacle that astronomers face when trying to determine the risk represented by newly discovered asteroids is to calculate the unknowns. In the case of 2024 YR4, this includes the size of the space rock as well as its orbit.
Observations made during the dark sky needed for terrestrial telescopes tracked small and faint asteroids after the February full moon, which shone intensely in the night sky on February 12, helped astronomers quickly decrease risk assessment for the 2024 YR4 .
The main telescopes include the Canada-France-Havaí telescope, the Subaru telescope and the North Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope, all located on the Hawaiian islands, as well as the Magdalene Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Gemini Southern Observatory, in the Chilean Andes, the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Nordic optical telescope in the Canary Islands.
“The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable and allows telescopes to produce very clear images, clearer than in most other observatory places,” said David Tholen, astronomer of the University of Hawaiing Institute of Astronomy, in a communication.
The probability of the impact of 2024 YR4 fell well in time. Astronomers were concerned because the trajectory of the space rock, taking it away from the Earth in a straight line, meant that the asteroid would be beyond the reach of terrestrial telescopes in April and would not reappear until June 2028.
However, astronomers plan to remain vigilant in the observation of the space rock to ensure that 2024 YR4 does not represent any risk, and the James Webb space telescope should observe the asteroid in early March for more details about its exact size and size.
This content was originally published in Asteroid 2024 YR4 has almost zero chance to reach Earth on CNN Brazil.
Source: CNN Brasil
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