- USD / TRY advances to new all-time highs above 10.0000.
- The CBRT meets Thursday and could cut rates further.
- The market consensus points to a rate cut of 100 basis points.
The Turkish lira descends further and pushes the USD/TRY to new all-time highs beyond the key psychological 10.0000 level on Monday.
USD / TRY: Open door to additional bullish potential in the short term
USD / TRY adds to Friday’s advance and extends the rally well above the 10.0000 critical level, while securing the fifth straight session with gains.
More losses in the lira are likely on the near-term horizon, as bets on the likelihood that the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will cut the policy rate by 100 bp at its Thursday meeting, driving the rate down. One-week repurchase at 15%, they continue to rise.
On the national calendar, home sales increased 14.9%, or 137,401 thousand units, in the year through October. In the US, the New York Empire State Index improved to 30.9 for the month of November.
Technical levels
So far, the pair is gaining 0.88% at 10.0545 and a drop below 9.6285 (20-day SMA) would expose 9.4722 (monthly low on Nov. 2) and finally 9.4128 (weekly low on Oct. 26). On the other hand, the next ascending barrier lines up at 10.0566 (November 12 all-time high) followed by 11.0000 (psychological level).
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