“The chances at the moment of an armed conflict in Taiwan are small”, believes the professor at the Institute of International Relations at USP, Kai Enno Lehmann, in an interview with CNN Radio .
According to him, “logistically, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be complicated” from a military point of view, since it is an island.
At the same time, the professor said that the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi creates a crisis point at a time when the world does not need more tensions.
“Pelosi’s vision is normative, she maintained and maintains that, at this moment, it is important for the US to show solidarity with democracies and show that the country will protect them from larger neighbors, such as Ukraine”, he explained.
However, he sees that the “timing of the visit draws attention”: “It seems to me to strategically divide attention between China/Taiwan and Ukraine/Russia.”
“Right now, both Americans and the rest of the world must focus on Ukraine to make sure it wins, it doesn’t help. Russia depends on trade relations with China to sustain the war, and political ties will strengthen as a result of this visit by Pelosi.”
Internally, on the domestic issue, Kai Enno reinforces that Nancy Pelosi’s trip demonstrates a certain “weakness of President Joe Biden”, since he was against the meeting.
“For her personally, it doesn’t matter, she’s 82 years old, so her political future doesn’t matter to her. In calculating congressional elections in November, perhaps she is thinking about not allowing Republicans to paint the government as weak in the face of Chinese threats,” she added.
*Produced by Alessandra Ferreira
Source: CNN Brasil
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