For every ten murders officially registered in Brazil, another potential homicide is no longer identified by public authorities, as highlighted by Altas da Violência 2023, released this Tuesday (5).
Defined by researcher Daniel Cerqueira, from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), as “hidden homicides”, these cases were detected with an approach supported by machine learning, based on the analysis of almost 3.4 million violent deaths that occurred in Brazil between 1996 and 2021.
In 2021 alone, the most recent data from the study, 5,152 cases officially registered as Violent Death of Undetermined Cause (MVCI) could be classified as homicides.
From 2011 to 2021, there were 49,413 total murders that could have established intentionality – that is, a person having lost their life caused by other people.
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“On average, the number of hidden homicides per year was 4,492. This rate corresponds to the annual average number of homicides that occur in the state of São Paulo, or the crash without survivors of 150 crowded Boeing 787s, in tragedies that are completely invisible”, point out the authors of the study.
Based on this discovery, Cerqueira and other Atlas researchers make a new calculation of projected homicides, adding the official cases to those underestimated in the Ministry of Health database.
“In the period analyzed, the accumulated number of projected homicides totaled 665,508 cases, compared to the 616,095 officially registered deaths”, states the study.
The problem of hidden homicides, according to the Atlas, worsened from 2018. The study also identified a greater concentration in the most populous states, with São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia and Minas Gerais being responsible for 72.5% of cases detected.
The identification of these hidden homicides and the recalculation of the rates by the 27 federative units would have few, but significant changes in the ranking of the most and least violent states in the country.
Amapá and Bahia would continue to have the highest homicide rates per 100 thousand inhabitants, but Amazonas would be surpassed by Roraima in third place.
On the other hand, in 2021 Santa Catarina would take over the position that has been occupied by São Paulo as the state with the lowest homicide rate – both, but above 10 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, above what is recommended by international standards.
Source: CNN Brasil
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