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AUD/USD breaks 0.6500, eyes weekly gains amid weak US data

  • AUD/USD experienced a notable rally, gaining 0.67% in the American session and heading for a weekly rise of over 2.30%.
  • Even though Federal Reserve officials resist the idea of ​​cutting rates in 2024, market futures are pricing in a possible 100 basis point easing by December of next year.
  • Key US data such as existing home sales, FOMC Minutes and PMIs will be released next week.
  • In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech and Minutes from the last RBA meeting will be published.

The pair AUD/USD It advanced 0.66% in the last operations of the New York session, which would record weekly gains of more than 2.30%, and is once again trading above the 0.6500 zone, with daily gains of 0.67%.

The Australian Dollar is supported by weak US economic data and speculation that the Fed has peaked its rate hikes

During the week, the AUD/USD pair moved from near weekly lows of 0.6350, but softer-than-expected US inflation data supported a rise of more than 2% on Tuesday. US CPI rose a less-than-expected 3.2% YoY, followed by Wednesday’s PPI decline of -0.5% MoM.

Additional data paints a soft landing environment in the US, after retail sales disappointed investors at -0.1%, better than the -0.3% contraction, but below the 0.9 gain % of September. That, along with weaker employment data, with jobless claims hitting their highest level in three months on Thursday, reassured investors as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had completed its adjustment cycle.

However, most Fed officials opposed rate cut estimates for 2024, but interest rate futures forecast a 100 basis point easing by December next year.

In Australia, business conditions improved, although leading indicators fell. Although the wage price index rose 1.3%, as expected, the data suggests that the creation of only 17,000 full-time jobs suggests that the labor market is not as strong as expected.

In the coming week, the US economic agenda will include existing home sales, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims and PMIs. In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will cross the wires on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with the release of minutes from the latest meeting, which could shed some light on the Australian economy .

AUD/USD technical levels


Latest price today 0.651
Today I change daily 0.0044
Today’s daily variation 0.68
Today’s daily opening 0.6466
daily SMA20 0.6397
daily SMA50 0.6394
SMA100 daily 0.649
SMA200 daily 0.6596
Previous daily high 0.6522
Previous daily low 0.6461
Previous weekly high 0.6523
Previous weekly low 0.6339
Previous Monthly High 0.6445
Previous monthly low 0.627
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 0.6484
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.6499
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6444
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6422
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6382
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6505
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6544
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6566

Source: Fx Street

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