AUD / USD surpassed the 38.2% retracement of the 2011/2020 slide at 0.7625 / 40 and the June 2018 high of 0.7677, confirming that the uptrend remains intact, Credit Suisse analysts explain. They see the next key resistance at the 2020 high at 0.7742, the break of which could lead to 0.7816.
“AUD / USD broke its previous high range during the final days of 2020, eliminating the key 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2020 drop at 0.7625 / 40, as well as the crucial June 2018 high at 0.7677. All of this suggests that the key uptrend remains intact as we enter the new year, in line with the large ‘shoulder, head, shoulders’ foundation still in place. “
“We now see the first resistance at the late 2020 high at 0.7742, where we expect to see new sellers early on as the market tries to shift into a short-term, temporary range. Instead, an immediate break above here would give a direct move towards the psychological inflection point of 0.7800 below, which break would see a test of the April 2018 high at 0.7816 “.
“Support initially moves to 0.7682, then to 0.7645, the removal of which would see a renewed test of the 13-day exponential average at 0.7624, which should ideally hold to continue the immediate bullish bias.”