AUD / USD continues its two-day slide, breaking below 0.7400 on positive US NFP report.

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  • AUD / USD touched a daily low of 0.7359.
  • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 534,000, better than estimated.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia delays the first rate hike until 2024.

The AUD/USD extends its two-day decline on the week, fell to a new weekly low around 0.7359, but rebounded away after a better-than-expected US non-farm payroll report, although it lost 0.14% trading at 0.7391 during the American session at the time of writing.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 534,000, Better Than the 425,000 Expected

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October non-farm payroll report, which showed the creation of 531,000 jobs added to the US economy, better than the 425,000 estimated by analysts. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.6% from 4.7%, while labor force participation was unchanged.

Last month’s figures leave payrolls short at 4.2 million below the pre-pandemic level. Another positive aspect of the report is that unemployment rates for whites and Hispanic Americans fell, while rates for African Americans and Asians were unchanged.

Reserve Bank of Australia delays first rate hike until 2024

An additional factor to the weakness of the Australian dollar is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA, which pushed higher interest rates back until 2024, according to the RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP).

Analyzing the SoMP, it also says that the economy will expand 3% in 2021, despite the severe contraction in the third quarter, due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. The RBA forecasts an acceleration of economic growth of 5.5% in 2022. Regarding inflationary pressures, the RBA expects wages to grow 3% and inflation to 2.5%, the midpoint of the RBA target by the end of 2023.

AUD / USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, the AUD / USD has just bounced away from the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7362, and is now on its way to a retest of 0.7400. On its way, it passed the 100 DMA, which turned the support at 0.7377. Despite all that, the AUD / USD has a downward bias, confirmed by the 200 DMA located at 0.7549 above the current price of the pair, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46, points to the come down.

For AUD / USD to accelerate the downtrend, they need a daily close below 50-DMA. In that result, the next support would be the September 24 high at 0.7315. A break to the downside of the latter would expose the September 30 low at 0.7169.

On the other hand, AUD / USD buyers will need a daily close above 0.7400 if they still expect higher prices. The next resistance zone would be the October 22 low of 0.7453, followed by 0.7500.

Technical levels

AUD/USD

Panorama
Today’s Last Price 0.7397
Today’s Daily Change -0.0004
Today’s Daily Change% -0.05
Today’s Daily Opening 0.7401
Trends
SMA of 20 Daily 0.7446
SMA of 50 Daily 0.7364
SMA of 100 Daily 0.7381
200 SMA Daily 0.7553
Levels
Daily Previous Maximum 0.7471
Daily Previous Minimum 0.7382
Weekly Preview Maximum 0.7557
Weekly Prior Minimum 0.7463
Monthly Previous Maximum 0.7557
Minimum Previous Monthly 0.7191
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7416
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7437
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7365
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7329
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7276
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7454
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7507
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7543

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