Analysts at Credit Suisse expect the USD to depreciate broadly and the preferred expression of this view remains pro-cyclical commodity currencies such as Australia’s. They forecast that AUD / USD will be capped by the 0.7574 / 7638 area in early 2021, but should hit the 2018 high of 0.8136 later in the year.
Key statements:
“AUD / USD remains in a clear medium-term uptrend after completing a major ‘shoulder-head-shoulders’ base in July and has already hit our first core target to the upside in a group of long-term Fibonacci retracements. at 0.7574 / 7638, which is expected to limit the market in early 2021. “
“The foundation structure is substantial enough in size to suggest that AUD / USD has the potential to test the key high of 0.8136 from 2018 later in the year. This, in addition to the 50% retracement of the entire 2011/2020 drop just above 0.8296, is likely to be a tougher barrier. It is worth noting that the ‘base target’ is higher at 0.8600 / 06, which could be achieved in the long term if the USD enters a structural bear market. ”
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