- The pair jumps 0.42% to 0.6315 on Friday, driven by a wide appetite for risk.
- Trump expresses willingness to avoid tariffs on China, offers clues on a commercial agreement.
- Fed rates cut bets and optimistic feeling press the US dollar.
- Merchants evaluate the latest US PMI data in the midst of a possible change in risk dynamics.
The Aud/USD attracted buyers on Friday after President Trump suggested that a commercial agreement with China remains available, reinforcing a feeling of risk. The torque advances at 0.6315, heading to its first weekly gain in three weeks. Meanwhile, the renewed speculation on additional cuts of Federal Reserve (FED) in 2025 continues to weaken the US dollar, providing an additional impulse to the Australian dollar.
Daily market summary: the Australian dollar continues its recovery while the USD remains weak
- The dollar falls to a minimum of one month while markets value the possibility of more flexibility of the Fed by the end of the year. In addition, President Trump’s statements about immediate trimming of interest rates contribute to the last fall of the USD.
- The possible reduction of rates from the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) in February and moderate economic growth could limit the rise of the Australian dollar.
- In the American front, the PMI composed of Global S&P slows down to 52.4 from 55.4, with the manufacturer going up to 50.1 and the service lowering to 52.8. Analysts notice a growing optimism in the manufacturing sector, waiting for support policies under the Trump administration.
- The president of the United States points out his reluctance to impose tariffs on China, citing that a commercial pact could be completed. He also reiterates his complaints about commercial deficits with several nations, including Canada, while asking OPEC to lower crude oil prices.
Aud/USD Technical Perspective: Short -term signals become more optimistic, hinting out a possible break
The AUD/USD has advanced at 0.6315 on Friday, extending its recent winning streak and approaching 0.6330. In the short term, technicians are inclined to a constructive perspective: the MACD histogram prints growing green bars, suggesting an incipient change towards a bullish impulse. The RSI is 58 and is rising sharply, indicating strong rising pressure.
This combination implies that the torque could be on the verge of a more significant rebound. A decisive rupture above 0.6330 would confirm a broader turn.
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street

I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.