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AUD/USD falls back to 0.6450 as USD recovers

  • AUD/USD pulled back below the 20-day SMA towards 0.6450.
  • The US August NFP report sent mixed signals from the US labor market.
  • The dollar benefited from higher than expected ISM PMIs.

In Friday’s session, the US dollar initially fell and found support at the 20-day SMA of 103.30, but then managed to rally towards 104.20. The US released mixed Non-Farm Payrolls and strong PMI numbers, while the Australian calendar had nothing relevant to offer, so USD moves mainly led the pair’s moves.

The report on Non-Farm Payrolls, which measures the change in employment in the non-farm sector, showed that the US added 187,000 jobs in August, slightly more than the 170,000 expected and the 157,000 revised downwards. . On the downside, average hourly earnings rose, but more slowly than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in the same month.

What lifted the dollar was data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which reported higher than expected August PMIs, with the manufacturing index at 47.6, above the 47 expected. The employment index also stood at 48.5, but remains in contraction territory.

In reaction, 2.5 and 10-year US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in three weeks, but later managed to pare their declines following the release of ISM PMIs. Along these lines, CME’s FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a hike at the Fed’s November meeting dropped to 33%, after hovering around 40% in recent days. Notably, market volatility on Friday was driven by investors’ digesting of key economic data. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell stated that ongoing decisions will be decided “carefully” based on incoming data.

AUD/USD levels to watch

AUD/USD daily chart analysis points to short-term bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its midline in negative territory, showing a bearish trajectory. Also, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) shows red bars, which signifies increasing bearish momentum for the AUD/USD. Furthermore, the pair is sitting below the 20,100 and 200-day SMAs, indicating that in the bigger picture, bears are still in command, and buyers have work to do.

Support levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6390.

Resistance levels: 0.6460 (20-day SMA), 0.6480, 0.6500.

AUD/USD Daily Chart


Last price today 0.6449
Today Daily Variation -0.0035
today’s daily variation -0.54
today’s daily opening 0.6484
daily SMA20 0.6471
daily SMA50 0.6611
daily SMA100 0.6646
daily SMA200 0.6723
previous daily high 0.6508
previous daily low 0.6461
Previous Weekly High 0.6488
previous weekly low 0.638
Previous Monthly High 0.6724
Previous monthly minimum 0.6364
Fibonacci daily 38.2 0.649
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.6479
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6461
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6438
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6414
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6508
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6531
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6555

Source: Fx Street

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