- AUD / USD returned to the 0.7400 level from highs previously touched in the 0.7430 region.
- The pair failed to get lasting momentum from a strong NAB business sentiment report.
- The focus is now on the Fed’s statements and more Australian survey data.
AUD / USD has declined from daily highs previously touched at 0.7430 and is now flirting with the 0.7400 level again, shedding nearly 0.3% on the day despite the release of an upbeat Australian business confidence survey during the Asian session. . If the bearish momentum capitalizes and the AUD / USD breaks below the 0.7400 level and Monday’s lows around 0.7390, then the technical indicators are likely to point to a move towards last week’s lows at 0.7360, which sits just right below the 50-day moving average at 0.7369.
Australian data points to a positive outlook for 2022
Australian bank NAB’s business confidence index rose to 21 in October from September 13, while the bank’s business conditions index rose to 11 in October from 5 the previous month. The improvement in business confidence was mainly due to a loosening of lockdown restrictions, local economists said, after the country’s most populous state, New South Wales, emerged from the lockdown on October 11 (survey data were collected between October 19 and 29). Sentiment also improved in Victoria, where the end of the shutdown is looming, and in Queensland, which should see its state lines reopened before the end of the year. According to local bank Westpac, “the reopening facilitated by high vaccination rates points to a positive outlook for 2022.”
Next day
Looking ahead, AUD / USD traders will focus their attention on the statements of some Fed members and Jerome Powell’s speech on diversity at 14:00 GMT. Thereafter, FOMC members Daly and Kashkari will speak at 4:35 PM and 6:30 PM respectively. Australian traders returning for Wednesday’s Asia Pacific session should watch out for the release of Westpac’s November Consumer Confidence survey at 23:30 GMT.
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