AUD USD falls from 0.7500 to 0.7460 amid risk aversion sentiment

• Market sentiment is pessimistic as riskier assets weaken against the safe haven status of the US dollar.
• AUD / USD falls on higher yields on US Treasuries, showing that investors seem convinced that rising inflation will force the Fed to act quickly.
• AUD / USD: Will fall towards support at 0.7427 and 0.7338 – Commerzbank.

The AUD/USD it is down for the first time this week, down 0.65%, trading at 0.7467 during the American session at the time of writing.

AUD / USD declines from the 200-day moving average by around 0.7545 due to adverse market sentiment around financial markets, triggered by Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, which dampened investors’ market appetite for more assets. risky.

In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield is up four basis points, standing at 1,674%, just below the 2021 high, providing additional support to the dollar. The market seems to be convinced that rising inflation will force the Fed to act faster than expected, despite how expressive Fed officials have been lately.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar’s performance against six rivals, is up a decent 0.06%, currently at 93.66, weighing on AUD / USD.

Initial jobless claims in the US fell more than expected, showing an improvement in the labor market

On the macro front, the Australian economic agenda was empty.

On the US front, Initial Unemployment Claims for the week ending October 16 fell to 290,000, better than the 300,000 estimated by analysts, demonstrating that the labor market is resilient as it begins to moderately accelerate the pace. Additionally, the 4-week moving average decreased by 122,000 to 2,481,000 in the week ending October 9.

AUD / USD price forecast: to fall towards support at 0.7427 and 0.7338 – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC, an analyst at Commerzbank, said: “The rally in AUD / USD has reached the 55-week MA at 0.7516, above here is the 200-day MA of 0.7565. We would expect to see some profit-taking in this area (…) In the very short term, we would allow a small pullback. “

He further added, “The declines should find tentative support at 0.7427 the August 4 high and 0.7338 (20-day MA), and this saves the September 29 low at 0.7171.”

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