- The Australian dollar falls 0.12% in the American session.
- Talks between Russia and Ukraine stall as fighting in Mariupol escalates.
- AUD/USD Price Forecast: The bias remains to the upside, confirmed by an upside breakout of a falling wedge and the 200 DMA.
The AUD/USD starts the week off on the wrong foot as it falls into the American session amid a risk-off market mood due to the extension of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as peace talks stall. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7409.
Russia-Ukraine War Update
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and intends to continue for the fourth week. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he is ready to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Turkish officials said Putin is not ready. In addition, Moscow said that the progress of the talks with Ukraine is not as great as it should be, reversing what it told the Financial Times last week.
A burst of negative market sentiment hit the market when the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the US ambassador on Monday and handed him a note protesting “unacceptable” comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin by of US President Joe Biden.
The Fed’s speech would increase in the week
Apart from this, in the last week, the US central bank raised rates for the first time in three years and also indicated that it is ready to raise rates six more times until 2022, according to the dot plot shown. . Markets have begun to price in expectations as the Fed’s speech dominates the US economic docket.
On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he predicts six hikes in 2022 and said he would be “comfortable” if the Fed needs to hike aggressively. Bostic added that inflation would return to 2% by 2024, while reaching 4.1% by the end of the year.
Remarks will be made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe late in the Asian session on Tuesday.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
AUD/USD bias is to the upside after breaking out of a falling wedge on Mar 17 but facing solid resistance at 0.7441 daily high on Mar 7. Also, on the same day, AUD/USD left the 200-day moving average (DMA) below price, two bullish signs for AUD, along with some pro-cyclical currency offerings, with commodity-linked pairs rising due to higher prices. higher raw materials.
That said, the first resistance for AUD/USD would be 0.7441. A break of the latter would expose the daily high of Sep 3 at 0.7478, followed by the daily high of Oct 28, 2021 at 0.7555.
Technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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