- The Aud/USD falls about 0.6270 while the Australian dollar weakens for the moderate expectations of the RBA and a possible commercial war between the US and China.
- Investors expect US inflation data, which will influence the interest rate perspectives of the Fed.
- The president of the Fed, Powell, said Tuesday that there is no hurry to cut the interest rates.
The Aud/USD pair faces a strong sales pressure after not being able to break over the 0.6300 key level of resistance in the European session on Wednesday. The Australian torque drops 0.26% about 0.6270, while the dollar index (DXY) remains laterally around 108.00, at the time of publication. Such scenario indicates a significant weakness in the Australian dollar (Aud).
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the strongest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.69% | 0.16% | 0.34% | 0.35% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.78% | 0.26% | 0.44% | 0.46% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.11% | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.33% | 0.35% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.69% | -0.78% | -0.67% | -0.53% | -0.34% | -0.34% | -0.95% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.26% | -0.16% | 0.53% | 0.19% | 0.19% | -0.43% | |
| Aud | -0.34% | -0.44% | -0.33% | 0.34% | -0.19% | 0.02% | -0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.35% | -0.46% | -0.35% | 0.34% | -0.19% | -0.02% | -0.62% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.16% | 0.27% | 0.95% | 0.43% | 0.61% | 0.62% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
The antipodeus falls sharply in the midst of firm expectations that the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) will reduce interest rates next week. This would be the first cut of interest rates of the RBA since 2020. The moderate expectations of the RBA are based on a significant decrease in Australian inflation, which slowed 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Meanwhile, the increase in the fears of a possible commercial war between the United States (USA) and China also weighed on the Australian dollar, being a liquid proxy of the Chinese Yuan (CNY). Last week, China retaliates against tariffs of 10% of Donald Trump imposing 15% levies on liquefied coal and natural gas (LNG), and 10% for crude oil, agricultural equipment and some cars.
In the American front, investors expect the data of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Inflation data is expected to influence market speculation about the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED). The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said Tuesday in the two -day testimony before the Congress that the Central Bank can “relax the policy if the labor market weakens unexpectedly or if inflation falls faster than expected.”
Economists expect annual underlying inflation – which excludes the volatility of food and energy prices – has grown at a slower pace of 3.1%, compared to the increase of 3.2% in December, with general inflation by increasing constantly in 2.9%.
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
