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AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls flirt with confluence of 200-hour SMA and 50% Fibonacci ahead of NFP

  • AUD/USD trades with a slight positive bias for the second day in a row on Friday.
  • The situation seems to favor the bulls and supports the prospects for further increases.
  • However, traders seem reluctant to open aggressive positions ahead of the NFP report.

The AUD/USD pair is moving higher at the start of the European session on Friday, although it lacks continuation and has difficulty breaking above the 200 hourly SMA. However, the pair manages to stay comfortably above a two-week low hit on Thursday and is holding steady just above the 0.6600 level, as traders look forward to the release of the US NFP report. for a new impulse.

From a technical point of view, the mentioned zone coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this week’s strong move from the highest level since August. Meanwhile, the daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory. Therefore, a convincing break above said confluence hurdle should lift the AUD/USD pair beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci, around the 0.6625-0.6630 zone, towards the next relevant resistance near 0.6650. Some continuation buying could pave the way for a new appreciation move and allow the bulls to make a new attempt to conquer the round level of 0.6700.

On the other hand, the 100-hour SMA, currently in the 0.6590-0.6585 zone, could protect the immediate downtrend. This zone is close to the 50% Fibonacci, which if broken decisively could drag the AUD/USD pair towards the intermediate support of 0.6545, on the way to the two-week low, around the 0.6525 zone. It is followed by the psychological level of 0.6500, below which the bearish trajectory could extend further towards the breakout point of the horizontal resistance of 0.6460, now converted into support. Next, the pair could weaken below the 0.6400 level and test the 0.6350-0.6345 support zone.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart


AUD/USD additional technical levels


Latest price today 0.6607
Today I change daily 0.0003
Today’s daily variation 0.05
Today daily opening 0.6604
daily SMA20 0.6551
daily SMA50 0.6443
SMA100 daily 0.6467
SMA200 daily 0.6577
Previous daily high 0.662
Previous daily low 0.6526
Previous weekly high 0.6677
Previous weekly low 0.6567
Previous Monthly High 0.6677
Previous monthly low 0.6318
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 0.6584
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.6562
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6546
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6488
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6451
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6641
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6678
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6736

Source: Fx Street

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