- The Australian dollar remains stable near minimum of one month after having lost more than 2% this week.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI of China confirmed that the activity of the sector contracted in July.
- The NFP is expected to be published later today, show a slight moderation in job creation in July.
The Australian dollar is still depressed near one month at 0.6425 in front of its American couple, consolidating losses after having depreciated more than 2% so far this week. A slight risk aversion and more negative data are weighing on the AU, sensitive to risk, before publication of the US non -agricultural payroll report.
The feeling of the market is still moderate on Friday, since US President Trump signed a new list of commercial tariffs that will take effect next week. Australian products will face a benign tax of 10%, but the heavy tariffs of 50% to China, the main commercial partner of Australia, are expected to weigh on the economy oriented to Australia’s trade.
China’s weak manufacturing data are weighing on the audience
In the macroeconomic field, the data published on Friday revealed that the prices of Australian producer increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the second quarter, the lowest reading from the third quarter of 2021.
However, Aussie was affected by more evidence of the weak manufacturing activity in China, since the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July from 50.3 in June, entering levels of contraction against expectations.
These figures confirm the gloomy data of manufacturing activity of the NBS published on Thursday, highlighting a decrease in export orders combined with weaker internal demand that represents a significant threat to the country’s economic perspectives.
The US dollar, on the other hand, remains firm, driven by the decrease in the expectations of feature cuts of the Fed, after this week’s monetary policy decision, and a cautious market, with all the eyes set in the US NFP report.
The market consensus anticipates a slowdown in job creation in July, with 110,000 new payrolls, since 147,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from the previous one 4.1%. The final figures will provide more clues to the September meeting of the Fed and will probably increase the volatility of the USD.
Non -agricultural payrolls – Frequently asked questions
Non -agricultural payroll (NFP) are part of the monthly employment report of the US Labor Statistics Office. The non -agricultural payroll component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the United States during the previous month, not including the agricultural sector.
The number of non -agricultural payroll (NFP) can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of the success with which the Fed is fulfilling its mandate to promote full employment and an inflation of 2%. A relatively high NFP figure means that there are more people used, earning more money and, therefore, probably spending more. A result of relatively low agricultural payrolls, on the other hand, could mean that people are having difficulty finding work. The Fed will normally increase interest rates to combat high inflation caused by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. “
Non -agricultural payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US dollar. This means that when the figures are higher than expected, the dollar tends to rise and vice versa when they are minors. Non -agricultural payrolls influence the US dollar under its impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP generally means that the Federal Reserve will be more restrictive in its monetary policy, which will support the dollar.
Non -agricultural payrolls generally have a negative correlation with the price of gold. This means that a number of payroll greater than expected will have a depressive effect on the price of gold and vice versa. A higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the US dollar and, like most main raw materials, gold is quoted in US dollars. Therefore, if the US dollar gains value, less dollars are required to buy an ounce of gold. In addition, higher interest rates (which generally helped a higher NFP) also reduce the attractiveness of gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where money will at least generate interest. “
Non -agricultural payrolls are only a component within a broader employment report and can be seen eclipsed by other components. Sometimes, when non -agricultural payrolls are greater than expected, but the average weekly profits are lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the main result and interprets the fall in profits as deflationary. The components of the participation rate and the average weekly hours can also influence the market reaction, but only in rare events such as the “great resignation” or the global financial crisis. “
Source: Fx Street

I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.