- The AUD/USD wins about 0.6480 as the growing moderate bets of the Fed have pushed the US dollar down.
- The US NFP report for July has shown signs of weak labor demand.
- Investors expect the US PMI data for the US services for July.
The aud/USD torque moves up to 0.6480 during the European trading session on Monday. The Australian torque wins as the demand for perceived assets has increased, after an increase in market expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) could resume its monetary expansion cycle at the September meeting.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability that the Fed cuts interest rates at the September meeting has increased to 80.8% from 41.2% seen on Thursday, one day before the publication of non -agricultural payroll data (NFP) for July.
Operators significantly increased the moderate bets of the Fed since the US NFP report indicated a deceleration in labor demand. The report showed an addition of 73,000 new workers, well below the estimates of 110,000. In addition, employment figures for June were reviewed significantly down 14,000 from 147,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, as expected, since the previous publication of 4.1%.
The increase in moderate bets of the Fed has weighs strongly over the US dollar. At the time of writing, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six main currencies, rises about 98.90. However, the index fell more than 1.4% in a single day of trading on Friday from its maximum of three months of 100.25.
Meanwhile, investors expect the revised data of the Global S&P services PMI and the US ISM for July, which are scheduled to be published on Tuesday.
In Australia, markets are closed due to a bank holiday.
Economic indicator
Non -agricultural payrolls
The most important result contained in the report on the employment situation is the monthly change in non -agricultural payrolls published by the US Department of Labor. The report publishes the employment creation estimates of the previous month and reviews in the data of the previous two months. Monthly changes in payrolls can be very volatile and the publication of this report generates high volatility in the dollar. A result superior to the market consensus is bullish for the dollar, while a result lower than expectations is bassist.
Read more.
Last publication:
old age 01, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Current:
73K
Dear:
110K
Previous:
147K
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The United States Monthly Employment Report is considered the most important economic indicator for foreign exchange operators. Published the first Friday following the informed month, the change in the number of employees is closely related to the general performance of the economy and is monitored by those responsible for the formulation of policies. Full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve and considers the evolution of the labor market by establishing its policies, which affects the currencies. Despite several advanced indicators that shape estimates, non -agricultural payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. The real figures that exceed consensus tend to be bulls for the USD.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
