- Mixed retail sales data in the United States change the approach to the Fed updated points graph and Powell’s fees guide.
- The AUD/USD proves the key mobile average support about 0.6500 while operators evaluate the growing divergence in monetary policy.
- The Australian dollar awaits new signs about whether the RBA will extend its cycle of rates cuts in the midst of rising tax restrictions.
The torque is going back to 0.6500 on Tuesday while operators digest the mixed retail sales data in the US, monitor the increase in geopolitical tensions and prepare for the Federal Reserve Policy Decision (FED) and the Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.
The Australian dollar (AUD) is receiving modest support from the high prices of raw materials and an American dollar (USD) in general weakest. However, the bullish potential remains limited by the growing global uncertainty and concerns about the weakening of Australia’s internal perspectives.
Mixed retail sales data in the United States change the focus on the Fed points graph and Powell rates guide
The cautious feeling dominates while the markets respond to contradictory signals in the latest retail sales report in the US.
The relevant control group for GDP increased 0.4%, underlining the underlying resilience of the consumer. With the Fed expecting to keep the rates unchanged, the approach moves towards the updated points graph and the guide of President Jerome Powell on the road of the fees until the end of 2025.
AUD under pressure as RBA rates cuts increases, tax restrictions highlight the growing divergence in politics
In Australia, attention focuses on an important fiscal speech by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, scheduled for Wednesday at the National Press Club. According to Reuters, Chalmers will outline structural challenges, including slow productivity and long -term budget sustainability.
Chalmers’s tone could reinforce the opinion that fiscal support will continue to be limited, moving the stimulus load to the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). The markets are already discounting an additional relief from the RBA, and if the Fed maintains a high rate posture for longer while the RBA is directed towards rates cuts, a growing divergence in politics could weigh on the audience and limit the bullish potential in the aud/usd torque.
The aud/usd remains inside an ascending wedge pattern
The Aud/USD pair remains confined within an upward wedge formation, with prices negotiating around the simple mobile average (SMA) of 10 days in 0.6508 and below the key level of fibonacci setback of 61.8%, located about 0.6550 (measured from the fall from September to April).
The torque has dropped to 0.6511, testing the lower limit of the wedge while it is maintained above the key psychological support in 0.6500 and the 200 -day SMA in 0.6428.
The relative force index (RSI) is located in a 55 neutral, indicating a constant impulse without overcompra conditions.
Aud/USD Daily Graph
A decisive rupture above 0.6550 would open the door to the Fibonacci level 78.6% in 0.6722, while a downward break below 0.6500–0.6480 would expose the following important support about 0.6428, where the 50% setback and the long -term mobile average converge.
FAQS Point Graph
The “Point Graph” is the popular name of interest rates of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which executes the monetary policy. They are published in the Summary of Economic Projections, a report in which the members of the FOMC also announce their individual projections on economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation for the current year and the following. The document consists of a graphic in which the forecasts of types of interest are represented, with a point that represents the forecast of each member of the FOMC. The Federal Reserve also adds a table in which the forecast and median range of each indicator is summarized. This makes it easier for market participants to see how the political leaders expect to behave the US economy in the short, medium and long term.
The US Federal Reserve publishes the “Point Graph” once every two meetings, or in four of the eight annual scheduled meetings. The “Economic Projection Summary” report is published together with the monetary policy decision.
The “Point Graph” offers a complete vision of the expectations of the political leaders of the Federal Reserve (FED). Since it reflects the forecasts of each official on interest rates at the end of each year, it is considered a key indicator for the future. Observing the “Point Graph” and comparing the data with the current levels of interest rates, market participants can see where the political leaders expect the types and the general direction of monetary policy. Since the projections are published quarterly, the “points graph” is widely used as a guide to calculate the terminal type and the possible moment of a monetary policy.
The data that moves the market most in the “points graph” is the projection of the type of federal funds. Any change with respect to the above projections can influence the valuation of the US dollar (USD). In general, if the “points graph” shows that political leaders expect higher interest rates in the short term, this tends to be up to the USD. Similarly, if the projections point to lower types in the future, the USD is likely to weaken.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
