According to Rabobank analysts, the AUD/USD will struggle to stay above 0.7800 on a six-month perspective, assuming the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) it is still seen as less moderate than other central banks.
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“The market has been scrutinizing the Minutes from the RBA’s June 1 meeting for clues as to what measures will be announced on July 6 regarding the Bank’s asset purchase programs. For the same reason, the market will also focus on the keynote address that the RBA governor will give on June 17. “
“The markets have taken the tone of the minutes to be moderate. This is due to the cautious tone of the policy makers, but also to the options that were presented regarding the decision on future purchases of government bonds to be made next month. “
“AUD / USD is currently trading below the 0.77 level again and the firmer USD is also weighing on the currency pair. We maintain the forecast that AUD / USD will struggle to sustain levels above 0.78 on a 6-month outlook, although this assumes that the RBA continues to be careful to avoid being seen as less dovish than other major central banks. “
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