August breaks record for net savings withdrawal balance, points out BC

The balance of net withdrawals from Brazilian savings accounts hit a record in August, the highest balance since 1995, the beginning of the historical series. According to the savings report released this Tuesday (6th) by the Central Bank (BCB), Brazilians withdrew R$22 billion more than they deposited in savings.

According to BC data, savings deposits totaled R$ 316.2 billion, while the withdrawal quota was R$ 338.2 billion. Also according to the Central Bank, this year, in the month of May, savings recorded a positive balance of funding, that is, there were more deposits than withdrawals.

With August data, savings deposits in Brazil in 2022 amount to BRL 2.36 trillion, while withdrawals were BRL 2.44 trillion, resulting in a net withdrawal of BRL 85.2 billion in the year.

“The redemptions reflect the loss of attractiveness of savings in relation to other investments available today in fixed income with the Selic rate at 13.75%, compared to savings that yield 6% more at TR [Taxa referencial]”, highlights the chief economist at Inter, Rafaela Vitoria.

The economist also reinforces that the offer of investments for savers in the market today is competitive, from treasury bonds and bank bonds to corporate credit, such as debentures, CRIs and CRAs. “The capital market accumulates issuances of R$ 318 billion this year, most of it in fixed income”.

Alan Ghani, professor at Insper and chief economist at SaraInvest, highlights public securities traded on the Direct Treasury, such as the Selic Treasury. “Currently, we see a popularization of treasury investments, which can also be an explanation for this migration from savings to public bonds, or other investments in fixed income”, points out the economist.

But Vitoria also assesses that the withdrawals can be, in part, attributed to use for consumption, as a supplement to income. “The recent improvement in the salary mass, according to data from Pnad, tends to reduce this trend”, says the economist.

Alan Ghani, from Insper, reinforces this assessment. “High inflation and high defaults make many people take the opportunity to take their reserves, most of them in savings, to pay off debts, supplement income and also use for consumption.”

Housing

Withdrawals are also a concern for the real estate sector, says Inter’s chief economist, as they limit the funding fund in the sector. “The SFH [Sistema Financeiro de Habitação]which offers lower rates due to the lower cost of savings, may become scarcer and financing rates based on the current Selic or IPCA + are currently quite restrictive”, he says.

On the other hand, Ghani points out that real estate financing with funds from the savings accounts of the Brazilian Savings and Loan System (SBPE) reached R$ 19.7 billion in August, against 16 billion in June and 17.9 billion in July, which would mean a recovery of the housing market and greater access to credit for housing purposes. “The Central Bank’s signal about the deceleration of the interest rate high cycle contributes to this improvement in the availability of real estate credit”, concludes Ghani.