Australia: RBA will probably cut in August as inflation cools even more – Uob Group

Australia’s consumer price (CPI (CPI) rose 0.7% T/T in 2T25, decreasing from 0.9% T/T recorded in 1T25, and resulting weaker than the estimate of the consensus of 0.8%. The result of slightly weaker general inflation was, however, in line with the projection of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) of May of 0.7%, reports the economist of UOB Group, Lee Sue Ann.

The RBA is expected to deliver another 75 basic points of cuts in total

“The Australian CPI was reduced to 2.1% year -on -year in 2T25, compared to 2.4% year -on -year in 1T25. This is the lowest annual inflation rate since 1T21. The CPI rose 0.7% T/T, slower than 0.9% T/T in the 1T25.

“The underlying inflation was also weaker than expected, with the average trimmed CPI, which is closely followed, rising 0.6% t/t, after an increase of 0.7% t/t in the 1T25. The estimate of the consensus was an increase of 0.7%. The annual rate of inflation of the half -trimmed IP 1T25. “

“The last series of economic data reaffirms our opinion on a downward movement of 25 basic points in the OCR of 3.85% to 3.60% in the next RBA meeting on August 12. Later, we foresee that the cash rate is reduced to a moderately accommodation territory, with the expected RBA to deliver another 75 basic points of cuts in total later to reach a cyclic minimum of 2.85% 2026. “

Source: Fx Street

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