Despite the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, international investment houses continue to give a “vote of confidence” to Greek banks. Greek banks are now returning to normal, with the NPE index expected to fall to 7% to 5% this year for the industry as a whole. The reduction of NPEs and the sale of assets lead to a significantly improved capital position of Greek banks.
Leveraging the Recovery Fund could lead to a strong growth in their lending capacity and a significant improvement in their profitability, at a time when the discount against European banks is particularly high. Morgan Stanley estimates that now the focus of interest for domestic financial institutions is shifting to the course of loans.
After a decade of leverage, the American house points out that it sees Greek banks on the verge of a possible turning point for the increase of loans, which will be led by the European recovery funds.
Axia Research in the aftermath of the 2021 results notes that Greek banks recorded strong balance sheet clearing against the initial targets, combined with very low new NPE formations, which led Eurobank and NBG with the highest capital adequacy ratios to announce the dividend for the year 2022.
Axia recommends a “market” for banking shares and a target price of 1.80 euros and a growth margin of 67.98%, based on Wednesday’s close, for Alpha Bank.
For Ethniki it gives a target price of 6 euros and a growth margin of 93.24%, for Piraeus a target price of 2.15 euros with a growth margin of 54.68% and for Eurobank a target price of 1.50 euros, with a margin rise 47.93%
Wood recommends a “market” for all four banks, while the target price of Eurobank is at 1.3 euros with an increase margin of 28.20%, the National – the target price is at 4.3 euros with an increase margin of 38 , 49%, of Alpha Bank is at 1.5 euros with an increase margin of 39.99% and of Piraeus at 1.8 euros with an increase margin of 29.50%. HSBC remains overweight, in a new report, on Greek stocks and banking stocks despite the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine.
He notes that according to the consensus, the P / E of the banking sector is 6.5 for 2021 and 6.6 for 2022. Two weeks ago, with the ongoing war crisis, HSBC had raised the target prices of banking shares.
For the share of Alpha Bank, it gives a target price of 1.60 euros from 1.40 euros previously and with a growth margin of 43.32%, the closing on Wednesday. For the share of Eurobank, the target price is 1.45 euros from 1.30 euros before and a growth margin of 42.89%. For the National Bank, at 3.90 euros from 3.55 euros before and a margin of 25.61%. For Piraeus Bank, it increases the target price to 2.10 euros from 1.95 euros and the rise margin amounts to 51.08%.
Source: Capital
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