The closure of the gas pipeline to Europe by Moscow is expected to cost 5 percentage points of Eurozone GDP and drive the euro below its one-to-one level with the dollar, according to Barclays analysts. Reuters.
The Kremlin has already cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland and this week announced sanctions on Gazprom subsidiaries in Europe such as Gazprom Germania, prompting German Economy Minister Robert Habeck to warn of a gas cut. from Russia.
“If Russia stops gas [προς την Ευρώπη] “We expect the EURUSD to fall below the dollar,” analysts said. The euro is currently at $ 1.03, having lost about 8% in the last quarter.
“Analysts estimate that the total loss of Russian supplies, combined with the imposition of restrictions on gas reserves, could hit the eurozone GDP by more than 5 percentage points over a one-year period.”
A recent analysis by credit rating agency Moody’s also said that ending Russia’s energy ties with Europe would lead many economies into recession around the world.
About 25 percent of the nearly 4,000 companies outside the financial sector that Moody’s rates worldwide will face “significant pressure,” the firm said, although the highest, about 40 percent, will be in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
It will “cause significant shocks around the world,” warns Moody’s.
Source: Capital
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