Battle for the Palace of the Elysium

Emmanuel Macron or Marin Le Pen? After the televised debate, it seems that the current president has stabilized the lead, but will he keep it? The French have the floor today.

In the end, Emmanuel Macron has a lead that seems to secure him a second term. Opinion polls show him ten points ahead of his rival Marin Le Pen, shortly before the run-off election this Sunday. But both he and his advisers have no reason to feel safe. Because by the end, about a third of the French have not decided who to vote for. The struggle for the re-conquest of the Palace of the Elysium continues until the last moment.

The fight for the ballot box from the left

If we want to summarize the TV debate that the two staffs were anxiously waiting for, Lepen’s presence was upgraded compared to the strap that she suffered in 2017. Her expressions were careful, her image was well-groomed and she was better prepared to face the verbal blows. Macron. But in the end, the French president emerged victorious from the studio with 59% of those polled supporting him. But all observers agree that such debates do not have a decisive effect on the result. “It’s like a myth,” said Arian Bogen of Northhumberland University in England. “She is one of the many factors. Lepen did not lose in 2017 because of her disastrous performance in the debates, but because she gave the impression that she is incompetent.” Bernard Sane from the Elabe Polling Institute adds that the two candidates showed significant weaknesses. “One in two viewers found Macron arrogant and half of them said Lepen was tiring.”

Macron’s biggest problem is based on a success, the crushing of traditional French parties. Even five years later, neither the traditional conservatives nor the former Socialists have recovered from the blow of that time. In the first round all the traditional ones gathered single-digit numbers and in the second they only serve as a pool of votes. Yes, artists, trade unionists and former presidents François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy have called on the French to vote for Macron, but they do not have an army of supporters behind them. The only significant pool of votes, with almost 22%, belongs to the left Jean-Luc Malanson, who almost ousted Lepen from second place. But these supporters of the former East German-style socialism find it difficult to choose between Macron and Le Pen in the second round. “Neither one nor the other,” reads a placard at the Sorbonne. Yes, Melanson on the night of the first round asked for “no votes on the Right” in the second round, but he did not make an immediate election recommendation and his supporters appear divided. According to the latest estimates, only 33% will vote for Macron and a majority said they would abstain. Christophe Castagne, head of the K.O. Macron, warned the undecided, telling them not to play Russian roulette.

Lepen is a threat to the EU and NATO

Both Macron and Le Pen are fighting for the same pool of voters, says Arian Bogen. “Macron has made a clear turn to the left and that is right, because the Conservatives have done badly. It is clear in pension reform or environmental policy. The most decisive factor, however, will be abstention, not only in percentage but also Will Macron be able to return to the old idea of ​​the so-called Cordon Sanitaire, which hitherto excluded right-wing extremists from the government? “These are the questions that will determine the outcome of the election today.” A look at the socio-political part of Marin Lepen’s party program is enough to make it clear that behind the moderate appearance there are still far-right or at least right-wing populist plans. For Europe, its election could be a fatal blow to the EU. It is in stark contrast to economic policy, immigration, and even the recognition of Community law.

Its plans deviate so much from the prevailing consensus that it would blow up France, the EU’s second largest country. The common policy towards Russia and Ukraine would soon have an expiration date. And the military implications for NATO’s future would be dramatic, because France is the only credible military power in the EU. In the debate, Le Pen said she was not against Europe, but wanted a changed Europe. “Europe is like a community house, you can not rebuild it on your own,” Macron replied. Today the French electorate is called upon to choose between a moderate political reformer, who under difficult circumstances has a decent first term, but whose weakness, this stench of arrogance, has stuck with him. And on the other hand a politician without government experience that wants to lead France to a savage nationalist isolationism with incalculable consequences. “Faites vox jeux”, the croupier seems to be calling the French in the political casino.

Barbara Wesel

Edited by: Irini Anastassopoulou

Source: Deutsche Welle