Because Erdogan’s moves smell of despair

By Bobby Ghosh

What exactly does Recep Tayyip Erdogan want from NATO? And moreover, does NATO need to give it to him?

On Friday, as the alliance awaited formal membership bids from Finland and Sweden, the Turkish president casually threw “sand in the machine”, saying his country “would not view positively” the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance.

According to the rules of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, applications from new candidates must be approved by all 30 member countries. Erdogan threatens not only to veto the expansion, but also to undermine a show of NATO unity against Russian aggression, dangerously close to its border, in Ukraine.

Kurds

His explanation: the two aspiring NATO members are hosting activists from Turkey’s Kurdish minority, some of whom belong to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, which Turkey considers a terrorist group. “The Nordic countries are like hostels for terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said in a video.

Turkey has long complained about Kurdish activism in northern Europe. Ankara also feels that the record of NATO member states – and the West in general – is not providing sufficient co-operation in its fight against Kurdish separatists. Although the United States and the European Union have officially designated the PKK a terrorist organization, they support the YPG (People’s Protection Units), a first Kurdish-related militant group based mainly in Syria, in its fight against Islamic State.

But although Erdogan’s rhetoric on Friday was familiar and not original, its timing seemed pure opportunism. It has been known for several weeks that Helsinki and Stockholm were going to apply for NATO membership, but there were no warning messages from Ankara.

The opposite in fact. When he spoke to Finnish President Sauli Niinisto on the phone a month ago, Erdogan reportedly raised the issue of Finland’s accession to NATO and even said he was in favor of it.

On Sunday, Niinisto said Turkey’s change of attitude had left him “somewhat confused”. At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin the same day, Erdogan’s foreign minister again broke the general consensus of the 30 countries to express his concerns about the expansion of the Alliance. “To be more specific, representatives of these two countries had meetings with members of the PKK and YPG, while Sweden also provided them with weapons,” Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu told reporters.

Erdogan’s spokesman, meanwhile, stressed that Ankara was not closing the door on NATO to the two applicants and that Turkey could be persuaded to drop its objections. Sweden, with a sense of duty, sends a delegation to Ankara to find out what it would take to change Erdogan’s mind. Niinisto said he would make another phone call. Other Western leaders are likely to add their voices in an effort to ease Turkish resistance.

Scenario

The best-case scenario from NATO’s point of view is for the Turkish leader to be content only with the attention he receives – he has a weakness in the international spotlight. Some expressions of reflection on Ankara’s concerns by the Finns and Swedes, along with a promise that they would be vigilant about any anti-Turkish activity on their territory, would allow Erdogan to claim, for his domestic audience, that he has Europeans.

He will no doubt want more, including more sophisticated weapons from his NATO partners and possibly some financial assistance. NATO countries seeking Erdogan’s signature should not back down erratically: Erdogan is not able to stand for long with his legs crossed.

The home audience is the key to understanding where their mind is right now. Turkey’s economic crisis – rising inflation and the pound fall are just two indicators of its seriousness – has made its president more politically vulnerable than at any other time in his nearly two decades at the helm of the nation. His polling performance is poor, strong labor unions are restless, traditional opposition parties are rallying, and new opponents are emerging.

With just one year left in the next presidential election, Erdogan desperately needs some victories. He has swallowed his pride and put aside his long-standing contempt for the Arab Gulf states, hoping to save the Turkish economy. But even if the billions of dollars of promised investments are realized, it will be years before ordinary Turks see any benefit.

Composure

On the international stage, having been at odds with his NATO allies for years, making Vladimir Putin his “dear friend”, Erdogan has been a rather regional figure in the most serious confrontation with Russia since the end of the war. . He sought the role of peacemaker between Moscow and Kiev, but to no avail.

In the run-up to next year’s elections, he is likely to make even more reckless moves: did you expect, for example, a repeat of his previous threats to launch a flood of refugees into Europe unless the EU provides more aid to Ankara?

The challenge for Turkey’s NATO partners, but also for those seeking to join the Alliance, is to maintain their collective composure in the face of its machinations.