Because it is difficult to reach an agreement between Russia and Ukraine

It will be difficult to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine unless the situation on the ground changes, according to Francis Fukuyama, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

“Both sides have lost so much that the kind of concessions that will be needed to reach a compromise is not just politically acceptable,” Fukuyama said. “It is difficult for Ukraine to accept anything less than for Russia to withdraw to the territories it was in before the start of the war,” he said. “If the Russians do not withdraw to the positions they held on February 23, before the invasion, I do not see how a Ukrainian president could survive that,” he added. “In this way, it will essentially cede Ukrainian territory to Russian aggression,” he added.

Russia, on the other hand, can not afford to give up the territorial gains it has made since the start of the war in Ukraine.

“It would mean that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, started this war, having suffered and inflicted huge losses, and all for nothing,” he said. “A solution should expect new developments on the battlefield,” he stressed.

Apart from the territorial issue, Russia has said it wants Ukraine to sign a neutrality agreement, something that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is ready to do. Zelensky also said he was willing to compromise with Russia on Donbass, a disputed region in eastern Ukraine.

While Fukuyama said he could not predict how the war would unfold, he said Russia had already been defeated in the area north of Kiev. “They claim that they are just regrouping, but, do not laugh, the Ukrainians have really destroyed a quarter to a third of the huge Russian power,” he said.

Fukuyama said he was “more optimistic” about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war because their morale was higher. “The Russians are discouraged, they have abandoned their vehicles. They do not know why they are fighting,” he said, adding that Russian vehicles were not well maintained due to corruption.

On the other hand, “tens of thousands” of Ukrainians returned to their homeland to fight for their country. “They were motivated by a deep sense of patriotism and national identity,” Fukuyama said. “I think these are factors that really play a huge role in determining the outcome of the military conflict,” he said.