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Because the markets are closely watching Erdogan’s hundreds of speeches

“Traders studying Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s speeches on indications of his policy can expect to spend even more” study “days in 2022, albeit probably in shorter sermons,” the report said. Bloomberg agency.

Erdogan’s speeches, which often move the Turkish pound with comments on interest rates and geopolitical developments, are increasing in frequency and decreasing in duration, according to a Bloomberg analysis of 1,056 entries on its official website dating back to August. 2014, when he transferred from the Prime Minister to the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey.

The leader of the Islamist Conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) has delivered a record 217 speeches in 2021 (until December 19), many of which describe in detail his at least unorthodox plan to turn Turkey into an export-oriented, low-cost, competitive export economy. .

During this time, the Turkish pound lost more than half its value, slipping to record lows as the central bank cut interest rates despite rising inflation.

Erdogan’s references to the pound surpassed those of the dollar as the most frequently cited currency in 2020 and hit new highs this year. His reports on interest rates also rose in the current quarter. While Erdogan reiterates his belief that higher interest rates fuel inflation and should be avoided, central banks around the world are beginning to tighten their monetary policy in order to contain prices.

“Erdogan’s speeches are usually quite complex and full of messages to his constituency, businesses, foreign investors and other stakeholders,” said Emre Akcakmak, chief executive of Dubai-based Greenwest Consultancy. “The market reaction is much more significant this time around, as the central bank has indeed cut its interest rates aggressively, at a time when almost no one expected to do so.”

Growing rhetoric underscores Erdogan’s dominance of public speaking in his country, where many television channels broadcast his speeches live, sometimes up to three times a day.

It also marks more opportunities to communicate with voters, but also to send messages to investors, who are increasingly focusing on Erdogan’s messages compared to those of institutions such as the central bank. This trend came after the removal of monetary policy makers who opposed interest rate cuts earlier this year, including the previous governor of the Bank, who had raised interest rates.

Opposition

Another issue on which the Turkish president is devoting more and more time to his speeches is the opposition, which has stepped up its criticism of its economic policies in order to attract voters who are frustrated by the rising cost of living.

References to opposition parties and their leaders – particularly the center-left, Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu – rose this quarter after nearly two years of “lethargy”. The CHP has gained political momentum in opinion polls since winning the Ankara and Istanbul mayoralties.

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are scheduled for 2023, but data show that Erdogan wants to strengthen his support from his electoral base until then.

His speeches are also increasingly focused on the so-called “new economic model”. Its basic principles have been consistently emerging in its website entries since 2018, when references to the terms “investment”, “production”, “employment” and “growth” began to increase. These reports have made a record appearance in the speeches of the head of the Turkish state this year.

“Given Erdogan’s particular style, we can understand why traders and other market players with short-term horizons are watching his every word to be positioned accordingly,” notes Akcakmak.

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Source From: Capital

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