He exults, takes him in his arms, kisses him. Once seated, he only wants to get closer. He walks over to the edge of his chair and begins a speech, waving his thick hands over the table. On November 26, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stands opposite Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Like a zealous servant facing a master. Seated in the back of his seat, the experienced Lavrov, head of Russian diplomacy for sixteen years, listens, his face closed. The meeting promises to be painful for Lukashenko.
Indeed, Lavrov is in Minsk to reframe the Belarusian dictator. Moscow is growing impatient. For almost four months, protests continue in the former Soviet Republic of ten million people, so far Russia’s staunchest ally. An uprising sparked by Lukashenko’s victory at the end of the fraudulent presidential election of August 9.
However, the Belarusian leader, 66, in power for 26 years, finds only one solution: repression. Fierce with the arrest of 17,000 people including private opposition candidates from the start of the electoral campaign. Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, 38, the wife of one of the detainees and likely winner of the presidential election, even had to flee to Lithuania.
On paper, Moscow shows unwavering support for Lukashenko. Vladimir Putin congratulated him the day after his supposed success and promised him a reinforcement in men if the situation deteriorated. Russian journalists have even invested the Belarusian television studios in order to provide the necessary propaganda.
The Kremlin is getting impatient
Behind the scenes, the matter is quite different. The Kremlin is concerned about rising anti-Russian sentiment. According to a recent poll, 60% of the Belarusian population is now hostile to an alliance with Russia, against 49% two months earlier. A setback on the steps of the Russian Empire which would be added to those suffered in Georgia, Ukraine, and quite recently in Moldova, a country decided to turn to the European Union since the election of its president Maia Sandu.
So, at the end of November, Lavrov comes with a message. Or rather a warning: it’s time to keep promises. The first one ? A reform of the Constitution. The second ? Greater integration between the two states. “As President Putin has repeatedly said, we are interested in the implementation of these initiatives,” Lavrov said.
Lukashenko knows it. On September 14 in Sochi, he spoke for four hours with Putin on these two sensitive issues. At the end of his meeting, he mentioned only one thing: the granting of a loan of 1.5 billion dollars by the Russian big brother. “I told him sincerely that a friend was in trouble,” he laments. Not a word on the rest. Back in Minsk, he doesn’t move any more.
This time, with Lavrov coming, he feels the pressure building. The next day, during a visit to a hospital in Minsk, the former director of sovkhoze (Soviet farm) finally gave up ground. Dressed in a white coat, he announced that he could step down as soon as a new constitution was adopted. “I am not preparing a new constitution for myself. With this one, I will no longer work alongside you as president, so calm down. ”
Trap
Words in the air? Possible. In August, at the height of the protests, he already mentioned his departure while specifying that he would not undertake anything under the pressure of the street. Except that now the conditions are becoming clearer. “With such a declaration, he creates a strong expectation and he gets caught up,” explains Artyom Shraibman, a political analyst based in Minsk, “if he does not do what he says, Moscow will consider it a slap in the face and it will be over for. him. ”
There remains one question: the calendar. “The Kremlin is ready to give Lukashenko a few more months to draft this constitution, consider a successor and organize new elections,” continues Artyom Shraibman.
Not sure, however, that Lukashenko leaves the landscape. He would seek to develop a status of “Leader of the nation” similar to that of the former Kazakh president. Nursultan Nazarbayev. Rather worrying news. There, the old Kazakh leader is still pulling the strings …
Donald-43Westbrook, a distinguished contributor at worldstockmarket, is celebrated for his exceptional prowess in article writing. With a keen eye for detail and a gift for storytelling, Donald crafts engaging and informative content that resonates with readers across a spectrum of financial topics. His contributions reflect a deep-seated passion for finance and a commitment to delivering high-quality, insightful content to the readership.
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