US President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russia “will attack” Ukraine, citing existential concerns from US President Vladimir Putin, even as he warned of significant economic consequences should that occur.
But Biden suggested that a “small incursion” might provoke a smaller response than a full-scale invasion of the country.
“I’m not so sure what he’s going to do. My guess is he’s going to attack. He has to do something,” Biden said, describing a leader looking for relevance in a post-Soviet world. “He is trying to find his place in the world between China and the West,” he added.
Biden’s prediction of an invasion is the firmest recognition yet that the United States expects Putin to act after assembling 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine.
After speaking to Putin twice last month, Biden said he believed his Russian counterpart had a good understanding of the economic sanctions he was preparing to enact.
“He’s never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he acts, that’s the first point,” he said, adding that the level of punishment will depend on how Russia invades.
“It’s one thing if it’s a small incursion and we end up having to fight over what to do and what not to do, etc.
“But if they really do what they are capable of doing with the forces accumulated on the border, it will be a disaster for Russia if they invade Ukraine further. And our allies and partners are ready to impose severe measures and harm Russia and the Russian economy,” he said.
That includes limiting Russian transactions with US financial institutions — “anything that involves dollar denominations,” Biden said.
A Ukrainian officer told Matthew Chance of the CNN, who is “shocked that US President Biden would distinguish between an incursion and an invasion” by suggesting that a small incursion would not trigger sanctions, only an invasion.
“This gives Putin the green light to enter Ukraine as he sees fit,” he added.
The Ukrainian military said he had never heard any nuance like this from the US government before.
“Kiev is stunned,” he added, referring to the Ukrainian government.
Explaining the reference to a “small incursion” that led to a discussion among Western allies over how to respond to the attack, Biden suggested that disunity in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could lead to a debate over how to punish Russia. for actions in Ukraine that do not amount to a full-scale invasion.
“If there is a point where Russian forces cross the border, kill Ukrainian fighters, etc., I think that changes everything,” the president said. “But it depends on what he does, to what extent we can achieve total unity on the NATO front.”
“It’s very important that we keep everyone at NATO on the same page. That’s what I’m spending a lot of time doing, and there are differences. There are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens,” the president said.
Emily Horne, spokeswoman for Biden’s National Security Council, said on Twitter that he “was referring to the difference between military and non-military/paramilitary/cyber action by Russians with allies and partners.”
The president also warned that Russian lives would be lost in an invasion, along with possible Ukrainian casualties.
“There is a cost to entering Ukraine in terms of physical loss of life for the Russians – they may prevail over time, but it will be heavy,” he said. “It will be real. It will have consequences. Putin has a difficult choice. or the de-escalation [da violência] and diplomacy or confrontation and consequences.”
“This will not be easy for Russia,” he continued. “Military, they have overwhelming superiority. And as far as Ukraine is concerned, they will pay a high price immediately, in the short, medium and long term, if they do.”
Biden speculated that Putin was looking for “no all-out war” but said he believed he was looking for some kind of confrontation.
“I think he’s going to test the West? Test the United States and NATO as significantly as possible? Yes, I think he will. But I think he’s going to pay a high and expensive price for that.”
“He doesn’t think now that it will cost him what it will. And I think he’s going to regret doing that.”
Biden later acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
“The only thing I’m confident in is that the decision is totally, exclusively, completely Putin’s. No one else will make that decision. No one else will impact her. He’s making that decision. And I suspect it matters which side of the bed he gets up on in the morning to know exactly what he’s going to do,” Biden said.
The president said senior US officials who had recently met with their Russian counterparts walked out of the talks not knowing whether anyone other than Putin really knew what he planned to do.
“I believe he is calculating what the short, medium and long term consequences will be for Russia. And I don’t think he’s made up his mind yet.”
Biden’s prediction came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also on Wednesday urged Ukrainians not to panic and “calm down” with fears of a possible Russian invasion.
“All our citizens, especially the elderly, need to understand this: everyone needs to take a deep breath. calm down. Don’t rush to get emergency supplies like wheat and matches. For all media: remain media, don’t become a source of mass hysteria. Don’t help the enemy in the search for unrest by informing them daily that war can happen tomorrow! It definitely won’t stop her,” Zelensky added.
“What’s new here? Isn’t that the reality of the last eight years? Didn’t the invasion start in 2014? Has the threat of war now arisen?” he asked. The only reason for “panic is that after eight years we are still influenced by it,” he added.
Zelensky said that “Russia’s objective is to weaken Ukraine” to force Kiev to yield to Moscow and “to create a backdrop in which our ‘no’ looks weaker.”
The Ukrainian leader said Moscow is “actively attacking its nerves, not our state. So you have a constant feeling of panic.”
This content was originally created in English.
original version
Reference: CNN Brasil
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