Two years before the next presidential election in the United States, the political climate in the country is unstable and it is still not possible to name the names that will be in the race. Despite having managed to expand the majority of the party in the Senate, the American president, Joe Biden, still faces obstacles to try for re-election. In opposition, the scenario is also uncertain: former President Donald Trump, who promised a return to the polls in 2024, is going through a troubled moment after a year with successive defeats in court and an increasingly frayed political image within his own broken.
Amid so many doubts, a survey by the CNN in the United States showed that most Americans do not want to see a Biden versus Trump duel a second time. According to the poll, conducted in early December, 62% of Republican voters expect someone else to represent the party in 2024. Among Democrats, 59% say they prefer another candidate running in the next election.
In addition to issues involving potential candidates, the year was also marked by the decisive role of a conservative and controversial Supreme Court, by protests that reverberated around the world, and by historic actions by Congress. Below, check out what were the main highlights in American politics in 2022 and how events help to outline the prospects for the coming years in the country.
Legislative elections have a positive balance for Democrats – even with Biden unpopular
The huge “red wave” (a reference to the color that represents the Republican party) that many expected in the mid-term elections did not happen. The Democrats lost their majority in the Chamber of Deputies, it is true, but the results were tough: next year, the house will be composed of 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Already in the Senate, Joe Biden’s party won an extra seat and will no longer need Vice President Kamala Harris’ Minerva vote to form a majority in decisions.
The results emboldened Biden enough to announce that although he has not yet made a formal decision, he does intend to seek re-election in 2024. But the president’s merit in this achievement is questionable. On the eve of the elections in November, the Biden administration’s approval rating was just 39%.
The positive balance for the Democrats cannot be read purely as a manifestation of support for the president – there are many factors that may have led voters to vote for the party’s candidates. Among them, the rejection of the opposition stands out, recently marked by the refusal to support the cause of the right to abortion and by the challenges to the 2020 election, seen by many as attacks on democracy. In any case, Biden is now making an effort to convince public opinion that the positive results happened because of – not despite – him.
Trump suffers defeats in court and at the polls
Upon losing the 2020 election, in addition to contesting the result, Donald Trump promised that he would return. But that goal seems increasingly distant, because of the series of problems involving the former president and eroding his political image. Trump is the target of a series of investigations in court: there is a committee in the House of Representatives aimed at proving his responsibility for the invasion of the Capitol, an investigation into his efforts to change the result of the election in Georgia, a traditionally republican state that Biden managed to turn in 2020, and a series of lawsuits involving their companies – in one of them, the Trump Organization was convicted of tax fraud.
Additionally, Trump became the first former president in US history to have his home searched by the FBI. With a search warrant, FBI agents recovered at Trump’s Florida mansion a series of official government documents that could not have been there – they should have been forwarded to a specific federal department, where they would be stored in the correct conditions, with restricted access. . The records may contain sensitive material that could put national security at risk. Damaging the archives in any way is a crime, which is why Trump is being investigated for his handling of the documents.
It is too soon to say whether Trump will be convicted in any of these investigations, but the spiral of problems is already affecting the former president’s public image. In the midterm elections, candidates backed by Trump lost in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, raising the question of how interesting it is to maintain political ties with the president. At the same time, he tries to demonstrate that he has enough strength to be chosen by the Republicans to represent the party once again in 2024. But in addition to the problems, Trump may still have to face a strong competitor, the controversial governor of Florida, Ron From Santis.
Supreme Court restricts abortion rights and expands access to guns
The current composition of the Supreme Court, with six conservative and three liberal justices, adopted two measures that caused controversy and provoked protests in the United States. The judges reversed the decision that was used as a precedent to guarantee the right to abortion across the country, and gave states the power to decide whether or not to allow the procedure. At the same time, the judges did the opposite with regard to guns: they took away from the states the power to prohibit the carrying of guns, determining that the carrying is legal throughout the country. The measure is still the subject of challenges in court, including in New York, one of the places with the most restricted access to guns in the United States.
In Congress, negotiations secure historic agreements for climate and same-sex marriage
The polarization of parties, which move further and further away from a place of common ideas, and the composition of the Senate, made it difficult to pass measures during Joe Biden’s first term. With an even split, 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, plus Minerva’s vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, one senator’s dissent was enough to prevent any bill from going forward. And it happened several times because of two names: Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona and Joe Manchin from West Virginia.
Sinema and Manchin describe themselves as moderates and disagreed with the Democratic Party’s opinion several times over the year. Manchin’s position, in particular, was decisive for one of Biden’s main campaign promises, the environment package. The senator, who represents one of the main coal producing states in the country, was opposed to the original version of the plan and demanded a series of concessions in order to be favorable to the project. The agreement was made and, even with the concessions, celebrated by environmentalists. After all, it is the largest investment package for the environment in the history of the United States, with 369 billion dollars in climate initiatives.
Another victory for Biden in Congress came in December, when the president won bipartisan support to pass the measure that protects the recognition of same-sex marriages across the country. In this case, the articulation to get the necessary votes from the opposition came from members of the republican party who identify themselves as part of the LGBTQIA+ community. The bill was a response by congressmen to fears that the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, could give states the power to ban unions of this type. A similar bill would protect abortion rights, even with the Supreme Court decision — but Biden admitted he wouldn’t have enough support for that.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
