The invasion russian gives Ukraine is playing out on social media and television in ways that no European war has ever developed. The entire world has seen the violence and devastation of the biggest war in Europe since World War II.
The invasion helps to shape and reshape opinions around the world and in U.S about Russia, Ukraine and even political leaders not directly involved in the conflict. It also affected gas prices.
Biden may be experiencing a little “mobilization around the flag” as support for country leaders rises in times of crisis.
Biden’s approval rating was at one of the lowest points of his presidency in late February. Then Russia invaded Ukraine and Biden gave his State of the Union address.
Some polls (mostly from Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour) indicated that Biden’s approval rating increased by 5 points or more after that.
Looking at all the research done after the Russian invasion shows that Biden may have received a small push, but not the big jump found in the Marist College research.
Specifically, Biden’s approval rating was around 42% on an average of all researchers who took a post-ill poll.russian invasion. These same researchers had Biden’s approval rating of 40% in their polls done before the invasion.
Some sort of increase makes sense, as Biden’s approval rating for handling the crisis is higher than his overall approval rating at work.
In a recent poll by Quinnipiac University, his overall approval rating was 38% and his disapproval rating was 51%.
The same poll put Biden’s approval rating at 42% and disapproval at 45% for his handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Still, Biden is on the wrong side. Its overall disapproval rate in the poll average is around 51%, which results in a net pass rate of -9 points.
The fact that Biden got a little push would be in line with previous studies on the “mobilization around the flag” effect.
They tend to be small in times of international crisis without an all-out war involving the United States.
In addition, most polls indicate that Americans are far more concerned about inflation and the economy than with this war.
Anything that causes Americans to shell out more money (like rising gas prices) could, in fact, have a negative effect on Biden’s popularity.
Perhaps the bigger question is what happens from here. Biden’s approval rating dropped rapidly after the withdrawal of US troops from the Afghanistan.
Americans did not list withdrawal as a top issue, and the initial decline in polls only accelerated in the weeks and months following Biden’s decision.
It is plausible that any increase we see in Biden’s ratings now could increase in the coming weeks and months.
Of course, Biden’s slight boost may be momentary before he settles down again. Gas prices are not yet historic, but they are difficult for many
The gallon of gas costs more than ever. That’s true. The average price of a gallon of gasoline was $4.33 on Friday, which is higher than in 2008 when it was $4.11.
Keep in mind two important things, however.
First, inflation is on the rise. We may get to a point where gas is more expensive now than it was in 2008, taking inflation into account, but not yet. Taking inflation into account, the average price of a gallon of gasoline at its peak in 2008 was $5.30.
Another way to look at this, as Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan did, is to understand how much a gallon of time worked.
At its peak in 2008, it took about 13.5 minutes of work for the average worker to buy a gallon of gasoline. We are currently under 10 minutes. Prices are now more comparable to where they were in 2014 by this metric.
Second, the efficiency of fuel in cars it’s a little bigger. On average, you’re earning a mile or two more per gallon than you were in 2008 or 2014. That might not sound like a lot, as the typical average Sedan runs on a 14-gallon fuel tank, but adds up to overtime.
As former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers put it, the price to drive 100 miles (given fuel standards and inflation) was, last Monday, still more than $5 cheaper than it was in 2008. or early 80’s.
It is difficult, however, for this to be much comfort for many Americans. When asked how many paychecks they could lose and still be able to pay their bills, 54% said two or less in a 2019 Fox poll.
A NORC survey from that same year found that 51% believed they could lose a paycheck or less before having to cut back on necessities if they didn’t dip into their savings.
The bottom line is that it’s going to be tough for a lot of Americans right now.
That’s a sacrifice, however, that many Americans indicate they are willing to make. The latest Quinnipiac poll found that 71% of adults were willing to support a ban on Russian oil imports, even if it meant higher gas prices. This included the vast majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
Let’s see if this holds up after a few weeks of higher prices.
Source: CNN Brasil
I’m James Harper, a highly experienced and accomplished news writer for World Stock Market. I have been writing in the Politics section of the website for over five years, providing readers with up-to-date and insightful information about current events in politics. My work is widely read and respected by many industry professionals as well as laymen.
