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Bild: Putin on Monday will turn off the gas tap, but will he ever turn it back on?

In peacetime, it would be a purely ordinary procedure, reports Bild, but in times of war, we begin to shiver in the middle of summer: Will Kremlin tyrant Vladimir Putin completely turn off the gas tap tomorrow, Monday, July 11?

Starting tomorrow morning, the most important link for Russian natural gas to Germany will be cut. The annual maintenance work of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in the Baltic Sea makes this necessary – the operator already announced this some time ago.

The maintenance work is scheduled to last ten days (until July 21) – but the German government is now worried that the repair stoppage could turn into a permanent shutdown of the pipeline.

Is Putin ready to cut off our gas forever?

Economy Minister Robert Habeck (52, Greens) expects the worst. The vice chancellor expressed strong concerns that Putin could use the project to completely cut off gas production to Germany. On Deutschlandfunk radio on Saturday he spoke of a “nightmare scenario”: “Everything is possible, everything can happen. (….) More gas may flow again, even more than before. But it may also be that it is not enough nothing at all”.

Habeck continues: “Honestly we always have to prepare for the worst and work a little bit for the best.”

In June, Gazprom had already significantly reduced the volume of deliveries through the more than 1,200 km long pipeline from Russia to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – according to the Federal Network Agency, the pipeline is currently being used at only 40% of its capacity.

The reduced volume of deliveries is also justified by the absence of a turbine from Siemens Energy, which could no longer be delivered to Russia from Montreal, Canada after completion of maintenance due to sanctions.

However, the West is now getting from Putin this possible excuse for an eventual halt to the delivery altogether: Canada has announced that it will allow the serviceable turbine to be delivered from Montreal despite sanctions against Russia.

To that end, Canada will grant “a temporary and revocable license” to Siemens Canada, Mineral Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Saturday. The turbine will be delivered from Canada first to Germany and then to Russia.

Nord Stream AG said it plans to inspect and, if necessary, repair or calibrate things like the power supply, fire and gas protection and some valves. Software updates will also occur.

Offshore pipelines remain under pressure. In previous years, these tasks took between 10 and 14 days. However, in some cases they also deviated from the planned deadline.

According to the Federal Network Agency, the work will not be carried out directly on the pipeline, but at the compression stations, for example in Lubmin. In the model’s calculations, the agency assumes up to 14 days, but has already included a time margin.

Under normal circumstances, however, it should be possible to complete the work within the stipulated period. According to the authority’s models, a permanent outage could potentially lead to gas shortages in Germany in the winter.

Deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via other pipelines had also been reduced recently. At the same time, several European states no longer receive natural gas from Russia. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the supply of natural gas to Europe from Russia has been considered to be at risk.

In addition to private consumers, German industry is also concerned about the upcoming maintenance. Particularly in the energy-intensive chemical and pharmaceutical industries, concerns about natural gas shortages are acute. According to the German Association of Chemical Industries (VCI), the sector is the largest consumer of natural gas in Germany with a 15% share.

It needs natural gas as a source of energy and as a raw material for further processing into products – such as plastics, medicines or fertilizers. Natural gas prices are currently “surprisingly” high, VCI President Christian Kullmann said on Wednesday. In order to remain able to deliver, the industry stores stocks to be able to continue to supply customers in the event of a crisis.

VCI CEO Wolfgang Große Entrup said: “We are preparing to limit or even suspend natural gas imports.” Companies in the south and southeast of Germany will be the first to suffer from the pipeline system. In the north and west, on the other hand, supply through ports is easier.

Therefore, large companies such as BASF, Merck or ThyssenKrupp have been preparing for some time at full speed for an emergency. A Thyssen-Krupp spokesman explained that the potential for gas savings in production is “very limited”.

Switching from natural gas to oil or coal is also not possible, or only to a negligible extent. “Supply restrictions are simultaneously linked to production restrictions, but they can be enforced by us up to a certain limit.” A minimum supply, however, is necessary to maintain production. Otherwise, outages and technical failures cannot be ruled out.

Cities are already planning emergency shelters for the elderly and poor

Due to the impending natural gas freeze, more and more cities in Germany are already preparing for an emergency situation.

Ludwigshafen (Rhineland-Palatinate) is an example: rooms are to be created here where citizens who can no longer afford to heat their homes can warm up. “Right now we are preparing for all emergency scenarios ahead of autumn and winter,” explained Mayor Jutta Steinruck (59, SPD). Friedrich-Ebert-Halle will serve as the central warm-up station.

The multi-purpose hall, which previously hosted sports events, exhibitions and concerts, was already used as a vaccination center during the Corona pandemic. Instead of injections, heat will be available there for free in the future.

The so-called thermal islands are also planned in other cities.

Source: Capital

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