If the bear market pattern of 2018-2019 repeats in duration and trajectory, Bitcoin will reach $45,000 by May 20. This forecast was given by K33 (formerly Arcane Research) analysts.
A reliable pattern or an illusory correlation?
BTC’s current drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.
If history repeats, BTC will peak around May 20 at $45,000. pic.twitter.com/JW4EaiMTOK
— K33 Research (@K33Research) April 17, 2023
The specialists noted the current “stunning similarity” of the drawdown and recovery waves observed three to four years ago. Then and now hodlers survived the failure and are in no hurry to sell bitcoin with a 60% loss (from ATH).
The sharp rise in quotes has all the hallmarks of a “hated rally”. By this term, specialists understand the feeling of “underloaded in the longs” of long-term investors after a “very traumatic year” during which they had to make forced sales due to fear of worsening negative dynamics.
In 2019-2020, the drawdown was 84% against 78% in 2022. The periods of decline in both cycles lasted approximately 370 days. And the return from peak to minimum after 510 days reached 60%.
Bear Market Rally Peaks 556 Days After Forming peaks of 2017 with a drawdown of 34% from ATH at that time.
K33 analyst Vetle Lunde explained the growth of Ethereum with a jump in speculative demand from institutionals. According to his estimates, over the past week, open interest in derivatives based on the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization on CME grew by 43%.
$ETH is holding above $2,000 after it reached an 11-month high on Sunday.@K33Research‘s @VetleLunde points to insights that show signs of institutional interest in ether derivatives.
Watch more markets analysis: https://t.co/P5ZzElUKs7 pic.twitter.com/FDLOLXbjKL
— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) April 17, 2023
Earlier, Glassnode analysts stated the end of the bearish phase of the market for the first cryptocurrency.
Source: Cryptocurrency
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