Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its consolidation after the January 25 bounce in price. The direction of the short-term trend remains unclear, but the most likely scenario is a rebound to at least $ 33,700.
BTC remains hesitant
After the rebound on January 25, Bitcoin (BTC) rallied and formed a candlestick with a long lower wick on the chart, while closing with a slight increase.
However, wicks on either side of the candlestick indicate market indecision. This promises the pair consolidation before it decides on a further direction.
Technical indicators are giving bearish signals and BTC is trading below the $ 33,700 resistance area. Meanwhile, the immediate support is at $ 29,000.
Approaching resistance
Bitcoin appears to be trading within a parallel descending channel, which is usually a corrective structure. Currently, the BTC rate is facing resistance from the channel median line and the likely downward channel line, which the market has already tested for strength three times.
A rise in BTC above $ 33,200 would indicate a pure bullish break above both of these resistance levels.
Technical indicators are gradually turning bullish but have yet to confirm the likelihood of a bullish breakout.
The shorter-term 2-hour chart shows signs of a reversal as the RSI is giving some bullish divergence signals. However, they cannot be called significant.
Nevertheless, it is likely that BTC will try to attack the resistance line at least one more time, and only then will it decide in which direction to break out – to the north or to the south.
Wave analysis
The results of the wave analysis suggest that the long-term trend is bearish, and the price may decline to at least $ 28,000. However, the mid-term forecast promises Bitcoin another bullish move, and only after that the pair will begin to decline towards the specified target.
According to the most probable scenario, sub-wave C (orange) may rise to the upper border of the channel at $ 38,000. However, it is very likely that the sub-wave will form a decreasing high, since this move is still at its initial stage.
Conclusion
Thus, at the moment, the direction of the trend remains uncertain, but the most likely scenario remains a scenario in which the bitcoin rate will make another rebound, after which it will begin a large-scale decline.
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