French voters begin the parliamentary election process today in a two-stage vote that will determine how much power the newly re-elected president Emanuel Macron will actually have, Bloomberg comments. If the polls are correct, it should maintain control, perhaps with difficulty.
Recent polls suggest Macron’s renamed Renaissance party and its allies should remain the largest bloc in the 577-seat parliament. But just as his margin of victory fell sharply in the April presidential election from his result five years ago, Macron’s majority in the National Assembly is also projected to shrink or may even disappear.
An absolute majority would allow Macron to advance his postponed plan to raise the retirement age, reduce taxes and promote his “green” transitional plans. If it fails, the government will often be forced to garner additional votes to pass laws, either by forming a coalition with another party or by drawing votes on a case-by-case basis. This scenario would require, at the very least, concessions, and forming a coalition could mean giving ministerial posts to rival parties to consolidate co-operation.
“It will be complicated” if Macron fails to get an absolute majority, said Mathieu Gallard, Ipsos France’s director of research. “French political leaders are not at all accustomed to the idea of ​​making compromises.”
Macron, 44, a center-back, acknowledged after his second term that many voters backed him to keep Marin Le Pen’s far-right opponent out, not because of their enthusiasm for his platform. Since then, the far left has emerged as its biggest challenger, as various parties have rallied around Jean-Luc Melenson, the leader of “Unruly France”.
The average of the four polls forecast released earlier this week shows that Macron’s party and its allies will receive between 268 and 310 seats once the second-round vote counts on June 19, well below the 350 seats it won in elections of 2017. At least 289 seats are required for the absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Presidential power
In practice in France, the president has the most power when his party and allies also have a majority in parliament, as he (and until now has always been “he”) can choose the prime minister he wants and dismiss him. at will.
But the prime minister and the government he forms must have the support of parliament. If another political group gains a majority, Macron will be forced to choose a prime minister with markedly different policies and allegiances, significantly limiting his power. This situation, called “cohabitation,” has occurred three times since the 1980s, though not in the last two decades.
Macron, who promised a “new method” to the French government in his election campaign, elected Elizabeth Bourne as his new prime minister last month. While Bourne is just the second woman to hold that position in French history, a number of ministers left by his previous government suggest the changes may be more about style than substance.
According to opinion polls, Macron is unlikely to be forced to live with an opponent as prime minister, but more than a third of those polled by Ipsos this month said they expected Macron to secure center-right support. Republican Party in order to govern.
The polls open at 8 a.m. Paris time and the kiosks will close between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. depending on the region. The Ministry of Interior will announce data for the arrival at noon and again at 5 p.m. In 2017, about 49% of registered voters went to the polls for the first round of voting.
Even after Sunday’s results, it may be difficult to say whether Macron will end up with an absolute majority.
Two round system
According to the complex two-round system, any candidate with the support of more than 12.5% ​​of registered voters goes to the second round, which means that the turnout matters. The system usually leads to hundreds of two-person by-elections, in some run-offs with three candidates vying for a place and in a few cases where one candidate wins from the beginning. In 2017, only 4 seats were settled in the first round.
After the second round, the left-wing group called Nupes, a coalition of Communists, Greens and France Unbowed, is projected to have the second-highest number of seats, between 163 and 207, according to opinion polls. The far-right National Alarm is expected to take 21 to 49 seats, while Republicans are expected to take 38 to 52 seats.
Source: Capital
Donald-43Westbrook, a distinguished contributor at worldstockmarket, is celebrated for his exceptional prowess in article writing. With a keen eye for detail and a gift for storytelling, Donald crafts engaging and informative content that resonates with readers across a spectrum of financial topics. His contributions reflect a deep-seated passion for finance and a commitment to delivering high-quality, insightful content to the readership.
