French President Emmanuel Macron and his proxies have adopted a revealing tone in the last week of the run-up to the run-off election, saying the country faces chaos if it does not hand over an absolute majority on Sunday.
The 44-year-old centrist even found a year before an official visit to Eastern Europe to discuss the vote, telling reporters on Tuesday that “Nothing could be worse than adding French disorder to world disorder.” Three days later in Ukraine, he described his left-wing opponents as a dangerous force that would destabilize, amid war and rising energy prices.
Macron came to power in 2017 promising a revolution in Europe’s second largest economy, but his reform campaign was slowed by protests and stopped by the Covid pandemic.
He was re-elected in April, he now has another five years to leave his mark, but his ability to pass key reforms will depend on how many seats his alliance wins in the 577-member National Assembly. In order for the legislation to be smooth, an absolute majority of at least 289 deputies is needed.
Items on his agenda include plans to raise the retirement age and implement tax reforms. Without the excitement it evoked when it was first elected and in the face of an active opposition, the support of the majority of lawmakers is not guaranteed at all.
The results after the June 12 first round vote showed that while Macron’s alliance, called the Ensemble, would continue to be the largest bloc in parliament, its majority would shrink dramatically and possibly disappear. Polls published last week gave a range of between 252 and 305 seats.
A result anywhere in this range would be a much weaker result than the previous time, when Macron, after winning a first term, continued to secure a sweeping majority of 350 seats that allowed him to pass a labor reform. A total of 289 seats would force him to compromise and form alliances to consolidate cooperation.
Macron faces other risks. The left-wing Nupes led by Jean-Luc Melenchon is on track to become the second largest bloc. Polls predict he will win 140 and 225 seats. If he manages to get 185 deputies, he will become a divisive force, capable of demanding referendums. It will also be able to call for parliamentary inquiries and be able to flood debates on bills with amendments.
With 20 to 50 seats, the far-right National Alarm is expected to emerge with a formal legislature for only the second time since the 1980s. step in Marin Le Pen’s ten-year effort to bring the party to the center of French politics.
Macron could also eventually be forced to reshuffle his government, as ministers are vying to become MPs and will lose their current posts if not elected. One cabinet member at particular risk is European Affairs Minister Clement Bonn, who could lose to a Noup candidate in central Paris.
Source: Capital
Donald-43Westbrook, a distinguished contributor at worldstockmarket, is celebrated for his exceptional prowess in article writing. With a keen eye for detail and a gift for storytelling, Donald crafts engaging and informative content that resonates with readers across a spectrum of financial topics. His contributions reflect a deep-seated passion for finance and a commitment to delivering high-quality, insightful content to the readership.
