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Bloomberg: Putin’s war poses dangers for Moldova and pro-Russian enclave

Tensions are rising in pro-Russian separatist Transnistrian territory in Moldova, with ominous comments from Moscow raising fears that the conflict in Ukraine could spread to the neighboring country, according to Bloomberg. As soon as he returned from the pocket, a senior security observer said that neither side wanted to get involved in the war of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Claus Neukirch is heading the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mission to facilitate the search for a Transnistrian settlement, where separatists have been at loggerheads with various Moldovan governments for 30 years.

The trip to Tiraspol, the capital of the self-proclaimed democracy, was followed by a series of unexplained outbursts in Transnistria that strained nerves. Earlier, a Russian general included Transnistria in Moscow’s war targets, claiming that ethnic Russians there were being abused.

What will follow in Ukraine is impossible to predict, and the differences between Moldova and Transnistria are profound. With 1,500 Russian troops stationed in the area, just 70 kilometers northwest of the Ukrainian port of Odessa, Moscow has a dominant voice.

However, “this is also an opportunity,” Neukirch said, speaking Saturday at the OSCE Permanent Mission in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova. “To some extent they are together in this crisis.”

The war has cut off both sides of a vital trade route through the Black Sea port of Odessa, and Ukraine’s move to close its land border with Transnistria has for the first time forced all exports and imports from the region to pass west, through the Moldovan customs.

Despite its pro-Russian orientation, 54% of Transnistrian exports went to the European Union in 2021, compared to 14% to Russia and 9% to Ukraine, according to the European Union Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine. This trade would be jeopardized if Russia took control of the region, a move that would have led to US and EU sanctions.

On Friday, Moldovan and Transnistrian negotiators averted a possible energy crisis by extending a contract for Moldova to buy electricity from power plants across the Dniester River in Transnistria before the expiration date on Sunday.

At the same time, Moldovan officials have agreed to allow a metal plant, important to the Transnistrian economy, to continue operating for a similar period, while addressing environmental concerns. The plant generates significant revenue and employer, exporting much of its product to Poland and importing scrap metal to supply its furnaces from Romania, both EU member states.

“We support all the positive processes that are taking place here,” Artur Dmochowski, the OSCE special envoy and current president of Poland, said in a statement on Saturday. He had traveled to Tiraspol with Neukirts. “We welcome the recent high level involvement of the parties, which has allowed the resumption of the metallurgical plant in Râbnița.”

However, there is more cause for concern than hope as the war in Ukraine continues. Earlier in the week, a series of attacks and explosions were reported in Transnistrian territory, including at the headquarters of the State Security building, an airport and a large AM radio transmitter.

No one was injured and no one took responsibility. Transnistrian authorities have blamed Ukraine for the attacks, while Ukraine has blamed Russia and Moldova has relied on pro-war factions inside Transnistria.

At the same time, Russian forces destroyed the only bridge connecting a part of Ukraine south of Odessa with the rest of the country. This heightened long-standing concerns in the port city that the Russian Black Sea Fleet could attempt an amphibious landing in an area that Ukrainian forces could not reach and then move north toward Transnistria, creating a new front in the war.

With the bridge damaged, any Ukrainian forces heading south, or Russian ones heading for Transnistria, would have to pass through territory controlled by Moldova, which has few armed forces.

Who was responsible for the attacks and what plans Russia has for Transnistria or Moldova in general, remains unclear. The ability of the Russian military to carry out such an amphibious attack or to support it by penetrating the Ukrainian defenses to reach Transnistria from the east seems, at present, limited.

Even so, the moves have left Moldova in a precarious position: It is still dependent on Moscow for much of its energy supplies, vulnerable to propaganda broadcast by Russian television channels that continue to broadcast across the country and politically divided. .

The Russian threat to open a corridor to Transnistria came a day after Moldovan President Maia Sandu signed a law banning the display of two Russian pro-war symbols – the “Z” painted on Russian tanks and his ribbon commemorates the victory of the Soviet Union in World War II over Nazi Germany.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the consequences of the ban would be “painful” for Moldova. Officials in Chisinau are anxiously awaiting the annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9, when many traditionally wear the St. George ribbon.

“This is a very dangerous new moment in the history of our region,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu told a video release.

Source: Capital

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