The Kremlin is expected to keep vital gas flows to Europe at a minimum as long as the standoff over Ukraine continues, increasing pressure on the EU for its tough stance on Moscow, according to people familiar with Russian leadership thinking. cited by Bloomberg.
In particular, the people who spoke to the agency on the condition of anonymity in order to refer to internal processes in Moscow said the technicalities publicly cited by the Kremlin about missing documents and turbine maintenance are pretexts.
In fact, Moscow is using the reduction in Nord Stream flows to increase political pressure on the region’s leaders to reconsider the painful sanctions they have imposed and their support for Kyiv.
Bloomberg’s sources expect the Kremlin and Gazprom to continue to find pretexts to keep flows tight, preventing European customers from filling the stocks they need for the winter.
According to a person familiar with the situation, Gazprom has analyzed the impact of reduced flows through next year and has found ways to limit the financial damage thanks to its price and revenue growth so far this year.
Some in the Kremlin even expressed surprise that President Putin did not move sooner to cut off gas flows, given Europe’s sweeping sanctions and arms supplies to Ukraine, one of the sources said.
“In the midst of a full-scale economic war between Russia and the West, it is difficult to expect both sides to honor past agreements,” said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council.
According to him, “it is unlikely that Russia seriously hopes that the energy problems will force the EU to change its attitude towards Ukraine”.
“But theoretically it is possible that the acceleration of internal difficulties will lead to changes of governments in some European countries and the new leaders will focus much more on domestic affairs and less on Ukraine.”
A person with knowledge of the matter points out, however, that the technical issues cited by Gazprom are real, but it could send larger volumes through Nord Stream by delaying scheduled maintenance on some turbines. But that would pose additional risks to pipeline operations, and Russia sees no reason to do so given Europe’s hard line on Ukraine, he said.
Source: Capital
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